Skip to main content

View Diary: More on the SUSA map (288 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  a different means of analyzing these poll results (0+ / 0-)

    I provide here another means of analyzing the SUSA poll results, utilizing the categories provided in the above analysis (solid Clinton, etc.).  We can see how Obama versus McCain fares relative to Clinton versus McCain in matchups in each state.  For this analysis, a +4 rating means that the state in question is listed as solid for either Obama or Clinton but is solid McCain versus the other candidate.  This indicates that there are four steps between the two rankings using these categories. As seen, only Arkansas merits this rating.  An even rating (0) means that if a state is solid Clinton it is also solid Obama, if it leans McCain versus Clinton, it leans McCain versus Obama.  Using this methodology, here are the results:

    Clinton +4 (6 EV) – AR
    Clinton +3 (0 EV) – none
    Clinton +2 (16 EV) – TN, WV
    Clinton +1 (89 EV) – AL, FL, KY, LA, MA, MS, MO, OK
    Even 0 (175 EV) – AZ, DC, GA, ID, IL, KS, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, RI, UT, WY
    Obama +1 (204 EV) – CA, CT, DE, IN, IA, ME, MD, MN, MT, NV, NH, NM, NC, OR, SC, TX, VT, VA
    Obama +2 (48 EV) –AK, CO, HI, NE, ND, SD, WA, WI
    Obama +3 (0 EV) – none
    Obama +4 (0 EV) – none

    As we see, Clinton fares better than Obama versus McCain in 11 states totaling 111 electoral votes.  Obama fares better in 26 states with 252 electoral votes.  They fare the same versus McCain in 13 states plus DC, totaling 175 electoral votes.  Here is evidence that the 50-state strategy can work, as Obama’s numbers place a greater strain on the McCain campaign than do Clinton’s numbers.  They will need to shore up their base and have fewer resources available to contest the swing states or go after our base.

    Of course, this is only one poll, taken eight months prior to the general election (and before Clinton’s big wins on Tuesday).  As such, all such analysis should be taken with a huge grain of salt!

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site