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View Diary: General Election Projections, Survey USA Rules Edition (259 comments)

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  •  VA - McCain vs. Obama (0+ / 0-)

    I suppose demographics might be the wrong word, but going on the 2004 results (54-46 Bush) and the fact that a large number of Virginia voters are independent - which admittedly can be looked at in different ways - but it detracts from Obama's strength with independents to be running against a candidate such as McCain who pulls independents, it leads me to believe that Obama is the underdog in that competition.

    Furthermore, having a substantial African-American population in a state has not been shown or proven to be helpful to Obama in a general election.  As far as I am aware, African American have increased in voter turnout by the exact same percentage that everyone else has increased in the Democratic primary - meaning that Obama would not be getting a statistically significant number of black voters to turn out for him in comparison to other Democrats, from my opinion on this information.  I apologize for not having the link to this data at the moment, but I will keep an eye open for you.

    •  You might be right... (0+ / 0-)

      but African Americans will turn out for Obama I am not so sure they will be there in the numbers Hillary will need to win after what appears to be a rough couple of months going after Obama.   I know a handful already who say they will not be voting for Hillary.  This race spells troulbe for both candidates and for me is very disturbing.  

      I will never vote for that woman

      by RedStateDem on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 06:47:25 AM PST

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      •  Although this is not a reason to vote Clinton (0+ / 0-)

        One-in-five white Democrats (20%) say that they will vote for McCain over Obama, double the percentage who say they would switch sides in a Clinton-McCain matchup (10%). Roughly the same number of Democrats age 65 and older say they will vote for McCain if Obama is the party's choice (22%). Obama also suffers more defections among lower income and less educated Democratic voters than does Clinton.

        The fear of African Americans refusing to vote for Clinton is something I can't find in a quick google search for poll numbers, honestly, but these figures are much more striking (and, even as a Hillary support myself, somewhat counterintuitive considering what I hear - but I suppose I am not overly exposed to Dems age 65+ and lower income/less educated voters as a privaty university student.

        •  Anecdotal only (1+ / 0-)
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          I only have anecdotal info and just a feeling.  I think it will be very hard to predict this year who will turn out to vote.

          I have several Afircan American friends who swear they will not vot for Clinton and say that pretty much everyone they know feels the same way.  Very frightening to me... I wish we could settle this soon.  I think Hillary has every right to stay in the race but saying that McCain is qualified and Obama is not is over the line for me.

          I will never vote for that woman

          by RedStateDem on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 04:48:53 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for answering me! eom (0+ / 0-)

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