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View Diary: Some Inconvenient Findings for Obama (324 comments)

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  •  You left out one inconvenient fact. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mia Dolan

    The voters who'll support Obama, but not Hillary aren't Democrats.

    Sure, most Democrats will be happy with either of them.

    But the crucial demographic you've conveniently forgotten are the cross-over Republicans and Independents who've supported Obama.  If you think that they are as likely to support Hillary, then you've got another think coming.

    -5.75 -4.72 3.14159 2.71828

    by xynz on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 08:49:14 PM PST

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    •  Go read the link. (0+ / 0-)

      Rasmussen polled Likely Democratic Primary Voters.  That would have included Obama's cross-overs.

      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality.

      by psychodrew on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 08:53:14 PM PST

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      •  That depends on Rasmussen's sampling method. (0+ / 0-)

        How do you know they're not sampling registered Democrats?

        How do you know that their sample doesn't come from blue districts?

        -5.75 -4.72 3.14159 2.71828

        by xynz on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:03:13 PM PST

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        •  It's a fair assumption. (0+ / 0-)

          Pollsters usually differentiate between registered democrats and likely democratic voters.

          They couldn't have called if a national poll if that had only polled blue districts.

          It's possible I'm wrong.  I don't subscribe to the cross-tabs.  But I think that I have made fair assumptions based on what I know about sampling methods.

          Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality.

          by psychodrew on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:07:02 PM PST

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          •  The fair assumption is that Rassmussen doesn't... (0+ / 0-)

            ...spend any more money than it has to spend.

            If you want to spend the least amount of time and money getting a sample of likely Democratic voters, then you take your sample from where you are likely to find Democrats.

            -5.75 -4.72 3.14159 2.71828

            by xynz on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:30:20 PM PST

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            •  The sample has to be representative (0+ / 0-)

              of the population as a whole.  If Rasmussen started cutting corners like that, then their reputation would suffer.

              Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality.

              by psychodrew on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:34:10 PM PST

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              •  No, the sample has to be representative of.... (0+ / 0-)

                ....their target: likely Democratic Primary voters.

                They've got their ass covered if they sample Democrats for opinions from likely Democratic Primary voters on a Democratic primary.

                It's a very narrow sample, but it's valid in that narrow definition. Doing otherwise would more than triple the cost of the survey. A little over 1/3 of voters self identify as Democrats.  Since non-Dems are less likely to vote in Democratic Primaries than Democrats, they'd have to sample a hell of a lot more non-Dems to find all the likely Dem primary voters to make their sample quota.

                -5.75 -4.72 3.14159 2.71828

                by xynz on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:47:59 PM PST

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                •  If they're going to vote for Obama (0+ / 0-)

                  they are likely Democratic voters.  Otherwise, they can't vote for Obama.  The sample of voters has to represent the population.

                  Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality.

                  by psychodrew on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 09:53:56 PM PST

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                  •  Get real. (0+ / 0-)

                    Rasmussen can save heaps of money by sampling Democrats and still accurately claim they have a sample of likely Democratic primary voters.

                    Because a sample of Democrats will yield a sample of likely Democratic primary voters.

                    If you're going to claim that Rasmussen will spend more money to take it one step further than that, then present some evidence that backs up your claim.

                    -5.75 -4.72 3.14159 2.71828

                    by xynz on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 10:15:33 PM PST

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                    •  This is a waste of time. (0+ / 0-)

                      Please go read up on polling, sampling methods, and the defintions of sample and population.  I can't have a discussion with you if you don't understand the methodology of polling.

                      Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions and hope into reality.

                      by psychodrew on Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 10:42:00 PM PST

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      •  In your dreams. (0+ / 0-)

        Pollsters' definitions of "likely primary voters" begin with "voted in the last primary election."

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