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View Diary: Hold Your Nose And Vote? (249 comments)

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  •  You're reading this backwards. (3+ / 0-)

    This doesn't show that 15% of Hillary's voters would be dissatisfied if she is the nominee.  It shows that of the 39% of voters who would be dissatisfied with her as the nominee, 15% of them voted for her anyway.  

    Some math.

    (60% satisfied with Clinton)*(59% voted for Clinton)
    = 35.4% of all voters who were Satisfied with Clinton and voted for her

    (60% satisfied with Clinton)*(39% voted for Obama)
    = 23.4% of all voters who were Satisfied with Clinton, but voted for Obama

    (39% dissatisfied with Clinton)*(15% voted for Clinton)
    =5.8% of all voters who were Dissatisfied with Clinton, but voted for her anyway.

    (39% dissatisfied with Clinton)*(82% voted for Obama)
    = 32.0% of all voters who were Dissatisfied with Clinton and voted for Obama.

    Out of the Clinton voters, (5.8%/(5.8%+35.4%)) = 14.2% of Clinton voters who would be dissatisfied with Clinton being the nominee.  While this is close to the 15% figure, that is a coincidence of the way the math worked out.

    Out of the Obama voters, (32.0%/(32.0%+23.4%)) =
    57.7% of Obama voters who would be dissatisfied with Clinton being the nominee.

    -------------

    Doing the same thing with the Obama numbers:
    (66% satisfied with Obama)*(17% voted for Clinton)
    = 11.2% of all voters who were Satisfied with Obama, but voted for Clinton

    (66% satisfied with Obama)*(82% voted for Obama)
    = 54.1% of all voters who were Satisfied with Obama and voted for him

    (32% dissatisfied with Obama)*(91% voted for Clinton)
    =29.1% of all voters who were Dissatisfied with Obama and voted for Clinton

    (32% dissatisfied with Obama)*(4% voted for Obama)
    =1.3% of all voters who were Dissatisfied with Obama but voted for him anyway.

    Out of the Clinton voters, (29.1%/(11.2%+29.1%)) = 72.2% of Clinton voters who would be dissatisfied with Obama being the nominee.  This should not be lost in the math.  Clinton voters (at least in Mississippi) would be much more unhappy if Obama was the nominee than the other way around.

    Out of the Obama voters, (1.3%/(1.3%+54.1%)) =
    2.3% of Obama voters who would be dissatisfied with Obama being the nominee.  Which does go along with the argument of the OP.

    It does seem there's more of a "hold your nose" aspect to Clinton voters, but there also does seem to be more of anti-Obama sentiment amongst them as well.

    •  Well, I'm a slow typer :) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      churchylafemme

      Looks like you caught it in the time it took for me to type.

    •  I wish it were one four-option question (0+ / 0-)

      It would be so much more useful to have the data broken down by "Satisfied with both/satisfied only with Clinton/satisfied only with Obama/satisfied with neither".

      •  That Breakdown does exist on the CNN exit poll (0+ / 0-)

        OP didn't put it, but it's there.

        23% Said they were only satisfied if Clinton wins.  They voted for Clinton 95%, Obama 2%

        34% Said they were only satisfied if Obama wins.
        They voted for Obama 99%, Clinton 1%

        35% Said they were satisfied if either wins.
        They voted for Obama 70%, Clinton 29%

        7% Said they were dissatisfied with both.
        They voted for Clinton 74%, Obama 10%

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