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View Diary: Obama, Electibility and the Rev. Wright (162 comments)

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  •  What you say I said (0+ / 0-)

    You've put words in my mouth that I didn't say. I did not say that Obama's unfavorable numbers were higher than Hillary's. I only said that Obama's poll numbers in at least one poll dropped significantly after the Wright matter had been reported. And that's indeed the case. And then we have the use of your favorite debating technique - the unsupported assertion: "National head-to-heads are meaningless." Why is that? You don't say. Because you said it, then it must be the case? Surely, that can't be your answer. Now if I was a cynic, I might think that your view on their meaningless would be quite different if Obama were way ahead of Hillary instead of being essentially tied.

    •  I'm glad you're not a cynic (0+ / 0-)

      because if you were, I could make you look very foolish right now:

      National polls are still meaningless. (0 / 0)

      As much as I like seeing my guy on top, neither Rassmussen nor Gallup awards delegates, so it doesn't matter.

      There are people who say, "If music's that easy to write, I could do it." Of course they could, but they don't. - John Cage

      by RoscoeOfAlabama on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 03:36:25 PM CDT

      As for "Obama's poll numbers in at least one poll dropped significantly after the Wright matter had been reported", I've addressed that here:

      A 4 point drop is insignificant is a race like this.  Note that Clinton dropped 3 points on 3/10, 2/28, 2/13, 2/11, and 2/04; also, she dropped 4 points (which, by your measure, is a sign of utter disaster) on Valentine's Day, which was the tail end of a cataclysmic 12 point freefall from where she was only 4 days earlier.

      If you take both of those comments in their totality, you get my rationale for disregarding national head-to-heads ("national polling numbers are a snapshot" and "neither Rassmussen nor Gallup awards delegates").

      Obviously, large scale trends are noteworthy; for example, if Obama were to drop 10 points in head-to-heads over the course of a week or so, that would be significant, but it would be predated by a precipitous rise in unfavorables and/or drop in favorables.  Thus, these polls aren't particularly predictive, so until we abolish the electoral college and institute a national primary, national head-to-head polling is little more than trvia.

      There are people who say, "If music's that easy to write, I could do it." Of course they could, but they don't. - John Cage

      by RoscoeOfAlabama on Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 02:58:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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