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View Diary: Superdelegates, Eliot Spitzer, and Pastor Wright (21 comments)

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  •  The superdelegates CAN do many things (5+ / 0-)

    Let's agree on that.  But let's also agree that that is a separate question from what they should do in light of political and ethical considerations.  The latter is what we should actually be discussing.  Now -- let's see those tax returns.

    Before we can repair the Constitution, we must continually remind people that it is broken and that repairing it is our patriotic obligation.

    by Seneca Doane on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:33:15 PM PDT

    •  SuperDelegates should monitor Tracking Polls (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Seneca Doane

      If, come convention time, HRC is comfortably ahead of BO, and if she is polling materially better than BO against McCain, then the SuperDelegates have the OBLIGATION of supporting HRC.

      And I say this as an BO supporter.

      With respect to 1992 and President Clinton, I recall President Clinton being comfortably ahead of Bush by the time convention time came around.  Moreover, as President Clinton was about to accept the nomination, and Perot dropped out, I recall polling that indicated an INCREASE in the margin of victory (exit polling of the 1992 election shows that Perot took more votes from President Clinton than Bush).

      Anyway, I'm pleased that we haven't yet picked our candidate.  The last thing we want is for Wright's HateLaden sermons to have been brought out weeks before the GE.

      Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project. http://www1.hamiltonproject.org/es/hamilton/hamilton_hp.htm

      by PatriciaVa on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:43:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That assumes her advantage couldn't be reversed (0+ / 0-)

        which in turn assumes that she has been properly vetted.

        I recognize that it's possible that the Obama campaign could be sucked down into a whirlpool of old-fashioned American racism and never recover.  But even if that's how things look in August, I would not want them to switch unless it were clear that Hillary had been properly vetted -- as she has not yet been.  And the difference in prospects had better be awfully compelling, at least if Obama comes in with a significant pledged-delegate majority.  (As I say below, if he has a narrow lead, they should do what they think best.)

        As I recall, Bill Clinton was in serious trouble between the Florida primary where he knocked off Tsongas and the Arsenio Hall show.  There was a lot of muttering about him.  And polling showed that Perot's 19% would have gone 8% to each of Clinton and Bush, 2% no-show, and 1% other.  (I may have mixed up the latter two.)

        Yes, I think that on balance it's better that the Wright speeches are out now rather than later, especially given the good quality of Obama's response.

        Before we can repair the Constitution, we must continually remind people that it is broken and that repairing it is our patriotic obligation.

        by Seneca Doane on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:49:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  asdf (0+ / 0-)

        Superdelegates should cast their vote according to tracking polls?  Great idea, because if we've learned one thing, it's that polling is superior to voting.  

        In fact, why don't we just have the media poll a few thousand voters in November rather than wasting all that $$ on an actual election?

        When I was a kid I remember reading some Science Fiction short story about a time in the US when statisticians became so accurate they could predict the election based on how the first guy voted, so only one person got to vote every 4 years.  The way he decided didn't determine the election, but they applied a formula to it that would accurately predict every other vote.  The story, what I can remember, was basically about his indecision on how to vote, trying to figure out if voting for the guy he wanted or against him would be more likely to get him elected (I was probably like 13 when I read this so I don't remember it too accurately, probably).  I think it was by Asimov.  I remember when I read it thinking: this is nuts!  But that was a long time ago and we've made a lot of progress in our polling science.

        So maybe the time has come!

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