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View Diary: Delegate Math: Where We Stand After Iowa Redux [Updated] (250 comments)

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  •  169 = Fragile. (0+ / 0-)

    Until Obama wins on the first ballot.

    "I cherished my hate like a badge of moral superiority." - Mark Rudd

    by Bob Love on Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 05:53:29 PM PDT

    •  Please explain (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bob Love

      I really don't know how the convention works, and I'd like to know what the 1st ballot, 2nd ballot thing is all about...even a link would do:)  Thanks

      Patriotism isn't something you can pin to a lapel. Patriotism is loving your country enough to want to change it for the better.

      by Preyanka on Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 05:57:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  On the first ballot (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fsbohnet, paintitblue

        delegates vote for whomever they're pledged to (although there can be some wheeling and dealing anyway, particularly with delegates of second-tier candidates like Edwards - sometimes also-ran candidates will direct their delegates to vote for a candidate still in play, but this year there probably aren't too many delegates in that category).

        Whoever wins a majority of delegates wins the nomination. If no one has a majority, it goes to a second ballot, and so on until a majority is reached.

        My point above is that in a two-person race the so-called "fragility" of Obama's lead should nonetheless be sufficient to win him the nomination on the first ballot.

        "I cherished my hate like a badge of moral superiority." - Mark Rudd

        by Bob Love on Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 06:14:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks (0+ / 0-)

          I guess I was just confused about the multiple ballots.

          Patriotism isn't something you can pin to a lapel. Patriotism is loving your country enough to want to change it for the better.

          by Preyanka on Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 06:25:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  No first ballot requirements (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Bob Love

          There are no first ballot requirements. Delegates can vote for any candidate at any time for any reason. This is for both pledged and unpledged delegates.

          •  Other than what Edwards brings... (0+ / 0-)

            Pledged delegates won't be moving in appreciable numbers I would think.  Superdelegates will shift.

          •  Correct, but isn't it unusual (0+ / 0-)

            for committed delegates to switch on the first ballot? Not unprecedented, but unusual.

            "I cherished my hate like a badge of moral superiority." - Mark Rudd

            by Bob Love on Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 07:43:06 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Absolutely unusual (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Bob Love

              But my point was, there's nothing special about the first ballot. (There used to be, but that was changed in 1982).

              More importantly, this isn't going to a 2nd ballot. There are only 2 candidates. Edwards few delegates won't waste their vote.

              And even more importantly, this isn't even going to a 1st ballot that is in doubt. I agree with the whole premise of the diary, and its really hard to see a scenario other than the superdelegates moving in mass to Obama in mid-June after all the primaries are over and ending this thing.

              •  I agree. Which makes so much of the (0+ / 0-)

                discussions here perfectly moot. Who HRC would name as her VP is a perfect example.

                It's over, unless martial law is declared and political parties are abolished. Oops, didn't mean to start a rumor ...

                "I cherished my hate like a badge of moral superiority." - Mark Rudd

                by Bob Love on Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 11:54:41 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  Rules of the Convention (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Preyanka

        The preliminary rules are contained in the "Call for the 2008 DNC". The rules can be changed, I believe, but most of the stuff is pretty standard.

        Basically if no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote on the first ballot they keep on voting until someone gets more than 50%. I'm not sure, but I think the general opinion is that pledged delegates are expected to vote for their candidate on the 1st and 2nd ballots, but after that they can do whatever they want. Legally they can do whatever they want at any time, but there are expectations of loyalty.

        I don't think anyone really expects it to come down to multiple ballots on the convention floor. With only 2 viable candidates it will be easy for the supers to push it one way or the other. If there were 3 or more viable candidates it could be interesting. In fact, for a 2nd ballot to take place some folks would either need to vote for a 3rd candidate or vote "present". I was a delegate in 2004 and the vote was just a formality. I was an Edwards delegate, but I was released from my pledge and encouraged to vote for Kerry, which I did. Kucinich was the only one, other than Kerry, to get votes on the floor and it was just a handful.

        It may take until June, but I fully expect the candidates and the supers to figure out who is the winner and then the loosing candidate will gracefully bow out and release their delegates.

        •  How can the rules be changed? (0+ / 0-)

          Clintons' best shot is to get their buddies on the rules committee to change the rules. I wonder what the procedure is?

          Nancy Pelosi chairs the convention, but I'm not sure what power she'll have. Anyone know?

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