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View Diary: Delegate Math: Where We Stand After Iowa Redux [Updated] (250 comments)

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  •  You could do a thought experiment (0+ / 0-)

    And say that had Edwards not been in the race at all, the Edwards voters would have voted for Obama, since the evidence we have is that to the extent they switched, they broke clearly for Obama.

    So the 20,000 number would have been much higher.  Had Obama gotten half of Edwards voters all to himself and then equally split the second half (i.e., 3/4), then the number would have been closer to 60,000.

    Obviously, Iowans have gotten a longer chance to look at the race and what they would have done on January 3d with no Edwards versus March 15th with no Edwards (and all the intervening events), so this analysis is inherently polluted.  

    But one thing you can say is that every Iowan knew and had an opinion about Clinton, and the Edwards folks had not chosen her.  That's significant.  More significant than not choosing the less known quantity Obama.  They may have liked Edwards' flavor of non-Clinton change better than Obama's, but Obama may have been a clear 2d choice if the race had only been Obama-Clinton.  We can only speculate, but I guess the point I'm making is Obama may have won Iowa by 20% (like Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, etc.) and gotten roughly the same delegate edge than Clinton got from her 10% Ohio win.

    Remember, it's the Blowout Principle.

    Calloused hand by calloused hand.

    by PocketNines on Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 06:45:03 PM PDT

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    •  I think the county delegates (0+ / 0-)

      may have been influenced by recent polling that showed Obama beating McCain in Iowa but McCain beating Clinton in Iowa.

      I have no idea how the Edwards caucus-goers would have gone if he had not run for president. From working my precinct, I know that a lot of people were not happy with either Clinton or Obama and rejected the idea of a two-candidate race. I think it's possible that a significant number of the Edwards caucus-goers would have ended up with Richardson or Biden.

      John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

      by desmoinesdem on Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 07:05:32 PM PDT

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      •  I defer to your better understanding of Iowa (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        desmoinesdem

        from reading diaries you've written around the nets.  I've learned a tremendous amount from your writings.  I just wanted to make the point that within the realm of conceivability is that half the Edwards support would have switched to Obama, and maybe half the Edwards support would have been equally strewn around among the Bidens and Richardsons.  We'll never know for sure, so we cannot go too far down the road.  Winning by 20% in Iowa versus 10% in Ohio nets roughly the same pledged delegate haul because the Blowout Principle comes into play.

        Calloused hand by calloused hand.

        by PocketNines on Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 07:15:13 PM PDT

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      •  Edwards' Iowa delegates would have supported O' (0+ / 0-)

        I spoke with them, heard from them, and caucused with them. They were overwhelmingly Edwards supporters first; O'Bama supporters 2nd. The only exception were a few of the older Edwards supporters who expressed a 2nd preference for Clinton.

        So I will be shocked if the remaining Edwards delegates don't split along the same percentages.

        •  maybe you are right (0+ / 0-)

          but if recent Iowa polling showed Clinton beating McCain by double-digits and Obama losing to McCain, I think a lot of the Edwards delegates would have gone with Clinton.

          Just my opinion.

          John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

          by desmoinesdem on Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 07:02:41 AM PDT

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