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View Diary: Delegate Math: Where We Stand After Iowa Redux [Updated] (250 comments)

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  •  That's completely wrong, though. (0+ / 0-)

    You're boosting PA by about 125K and Florida by 7K (CNN shows 288K).  I don't get why you think this closes the gap.  You aren't talking about 4 states Obama is almost certain to win, including NC where he will probably wash out PA.  You closed the gap using those states without re-expanding the gap with the ones Obama wins.

    So not within shouting distance at all.  And you can't just arbitrarily not include human beings who went to the polls in caucus states just because RCP doesn't have totals for them.

    Calloused hand by calloused hand.

    by PocketNines on Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 02:05:21 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Rationale (0+ / 0-)

      I explain PA:  She has to do better than in OH.  You assume OH-like.  My point is that an OH-like win won't be enough.  She needs to do better than that.   But it is entirely possible she will - closed primary, she has some momentum.  Probable?  Maybe not.  Possible?  Absolutely.

      FL:  I use the RCP numbers -- won't fight about 7K.  

      I assume that the rest of the election is effectively a wash-out.   I don't need to use Obama's numbers to make my point, as you an Obama supporter do.   He will clearly win a number of states.  I just assume that the balance of things wash out.

      So yes, within shouting distance.  It is possible that she can catch up, reasonably possible.   Is it probable?  I don't think it's probable.  But that's why you have elections.

      Your caucus point is a separate one in my opinion.   I don't think caucus support is equivalent to primary voter support.  One can do the analysis and it looks like it gives Obama another 100K votes.   This makes Clinton's task harder, but still reasonably possible....

      •  Again, false. Just... false. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NMLib

        There is a huge logical hole in your argument.

        Built into my statement that the 10 known contests won't get her back over where we sit today IS Pennsylvania.

        I am including a 250K gain for her in Pennsylvania in that calculus!

        If you want to give her another 125K, it doesn't bring her anywhere close.

        Let's run through it again.

        I give:

        PA 19 CDs - Clinton +250K (a 10% margin assuming the same percentage turnout, even though PA is closed while OH was open)
        IN 9 CDs - Obama +10K (ala Missouri, 9 CDs)
        NC 15 CDs - Obama +275K (ala Virginia, 11 CDs)
        WV and KY 9 total CDs - Clinton +82K (ala Tennessee, 9 CDs)
        OR, MT, SD (nearly 8 CDs worth of population) - Obama +193K (ala Wisconsin, 8 CDs)

        This nets Obama with 146K, which I generously give all to Clinton in Puerto Rico, just to get back to where we sit today, at 813K votes.

        I don't care whether you think caucus support is equivalent to primary support.  Your opinion on this is irrelevant, because RCP takes numbers from most of the caucus states and includes them in its total.  The only ones it doesn't are the small handful of states - Iowa, Nevada, Washington state and Maine - who did not release popular vote numbers.  Therefore it's not in the realm of opinion, this is the way it's being calculated.  Thus, your framing this as a matter of my partisan opinion versus your opinion is summarily rejected.  You yourself have already accepted the vast majority of poplar vote totals in caucus states simply by citing RCP.  So you cede that argument.  Nice try, though.

        Now, in Florida's sham election 288K or 295K it doesn't matter.  Let me explain.

        813K minus 288K = Clinton not close.

        813K minus 295K = Clinton not close.

        813K minus (295K + 125K) = Clinton not close, still 393K behind.

        She can call it whatever she wants:
        "close to a tie"
        "a virtual tie"
        "a near draw"

        It doesn't fucking matter.  In this country we don't have elections that are won by 393,000 votes even if 35 million voted and call the person trailing by those 393,000 anything but one thing:

        The clear loser of the election.

        Given that the popular vote is not meaningful in any way that the nominee is selected except as an argument point to superdelegates, the whole point is she loses even that last vestige of hope.

        Do you see?

        Or do we need another iteration of logical chicanery?

        Calloused hand by calloused hand.

        by PocketNines on Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 09:32:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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