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View Diary: Ahnold the Liernator (118 comments)

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  •  If RFK had lived (none)
    First he would have had to get the Dem nomination - in '68, a majority of the delegates were not chosen by primary but selected by state parties. Humphrey got into the race after LBJ withdrew and did not participate in the primaries. The best chance for RFK to win was the real possiblity that Richard Daley would have thrown the Illinois delegation behind him - Daley was of course close to the Kennedys, and his family and aides have said after the fact he was very troubled by the Vietnam war ironically enough.
    Had that happened, there would not have been riots in Chicago, which badly hurt Humphrey.
    The race then would have been Kennedy-Nixon-Wallace, with RFK as the anti-war candidate (as opposed to HHH, who only took baby steps against the war in the last week of the campaign).
    The dynamic, apart from RFK as an anti-war candidate, that would have been at work was the possibility of RFK cutting into some of the urban northern vote that Wallace picked up (Nixon won Illinois for example). On the other hand, Humphrey won Texas, which have might gone to Nixon if Kennedy has been the candidate.
    •  Daley was ready (none)
      to do that after RFKs California victory.  You probably still have a convention fight, RFK probably wins that, as Humphrey with the weight of LBJs war policies is seen as a big loser in November.  I agree with you, no riots, and probably fewer protests to begin with, and with RFK needing those anti-war votes in the fall, Daley calls off the nastiness.

      RFK will lose Texas for sure, but would make up for it by winning IL, OH, CA, WI, and NJ at the least.  

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