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View Diary: Popular Vote Projections - Obama Will Win It (33 comments)

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  •  for comparison... (0+ / 0-)

    right after OH i ran a far cruder set of turnout projections based on:
    OH per capita turnout (16.3%), modified by the relative number of dem national delegates per capita in each of the remaining states (blueness adjustment), reduced by 25% for closed primaries (PA, OR, KY, SD).

    here's what i came up with...

    (in thousands)
    MS 437 (405 actual)
    PA 1571 (1543 PocketNine)
    IN 954 (1223 PocketNine)
    NC 1524 (1576 PocketNine)
    WV 371 (301 PocketNine)
    KY 507 (436 PocketNine)
    OR 517 (544 PocketNine)
    PR 729
    MT 212 (164 PocketNine)
    SD 149 (82 PocketNine)

    btw, for some reason MT and SD are given more dem national delegates per capita than the far bluer states such as OR & PA (!).

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