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View Diary: FACT: Bush Led Gore By 13 Points in Late October (100 comments)

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  •  I'll see your fact and raise you one... (2.50)
    FACT: Bush Led Gore By 13 Points in Late October

    Fair enough, but..

    FACT: Bush "beat" Gore!

    What sort of Kool-Aid is everyone drinking here?

    As of right now, Bush is the odds on favorite to win.  To believe otherwise is to shove our heads into the ground.

    Don't like those FACTS?  Do something about it!
    Work Harder!

    (As shall I...)

    But for Christ's sake... Don't discount reality. (And numerous polls)

    "The identity of the loser is perfectly clear. It is the Nation's confidence in the judge as an impartial guardian of the rule of law." Bush v. Gore

    by DeanorBust on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 02:31:59 PM PDT

    •  But wait... (4.00)
      I don't think there's anything in this diary that suggests people should not work harder.  On the contrary, the point here is to let people know that their hard work is still matters, that the race is not nearly over, and that polls should not dampen enthusiasm and organization.  Are we behind?  Yes.  Should people panic?  No.  This diary did not display any triumphal confidence, just knowledge that every poll should not be a psychological blow to the head.
    •  Your missing the point (none)
      Here's another fact: Even when you factor in all the dirty tricks Rove and company pulled in Florida, they still would have lost by 20,000 votes, had it not been for one confusing ballot, which they had nothing to do with.

      But aside from that, the point is that even though Bush had a 13 point lead, that lead collapsed, and that this year if we all get out the vote, we will win.

      "Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please." - Mark Twain

      by Zackpunk on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:23:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not Kool-Aid... (3.50)
      Just positive thinking Dean-Bro.

      Here is something that I have not seen brought up regarding the Time Poll.

      The third question in the Time poll reads:

      "In your opinion, do you think President Bush deserves to be reelected to a second term, or do you think it is time for someone else to be president?"

      Among likely voters:
       8/31 - 9/2/04  
      Deserves Reelection 51%
      Someone Else        47%
      Unsure               2%

      Among registered voters:
       8/31 - 9/2/04
      Deserves Reelection 49%
      Someone Else        48%
      Unsure               3%

      Now that is only a 4 point spread with Likely voters and only 1 point spread with Registered voters.

      That is a far cry from a 10 point spread. Now how can you go from 1% who says he should stay to 10% who would vote for him? I think it is because Kerry still has not closed the deal. But the door is open for him according to these numbers.

      And remember the internal poll figures are often more revealing than the horse race figures. And given the obvious bias as pointed out in the other posts in this thread, I say we are still in pretty good shape.

      The upside is when Kerry closes the fictitious gap - he will be the one seen as having ALL THE MOMENTUM.

    •  Context (4.00)
      Yes, Bush beat Gore in the Electoral college.

      The context of this discussions, is that he was that far behind in the national popular vote polls, and ended up overtaking him in that count.

      I don't think anyone has lost site of the realities of the final electoral results of 2000.


    •  Re: DeanorBust (none)
      Hmmm... If I had this handle, I'd want to change it, but would be stuck.

      Memo on Kos technology: It might be good for people to be able to change their handles while keeping their basic identities and mojo -- provided their old names were visible somewhere, to keep informal reputations intact, too. (Not a priority, perhaps but a good idea if it were easy.)

      The medium shapes the message -- we need new new media, more biased toward truth.

      by technopolitical on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 06:25:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Fact (none)
      In the end, no matter who "won," one candidate got more votes than the other candidate.  The poll question is "who will you vote for?" It's not "who do ya thinks gonna win the electoral college?"

      Zogby got the answer right:  Gore by 1 point.  That means the October polling told you where the race was in October but it didn't tell you who people were going to vote for on election day.


      "But your flag decal won't get you into heaven anymore"--Prine

      by Cathy on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 09:14:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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