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View Diary: Ridiculous PA poll (290 comments)

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  •  The PPP and the Rasmussen polls that (5+ / 0-)

    are more favorable to Obama were conducted over March 31-April 1, while the SUSA and Q-pac polls go back a little further (to the 29th and 24th, respectively).

    I would be curious to see SUSA numbers for their final day of polling.

    One could argue that the "Casey effect", if there is one, didn't kick in until the last couple of days.

    Don't Legitimize Fox News.
    "Democrats have the heart to care."

    by jeepdad on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:48:41 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  PPP Shows 20pt swing in NC over less time (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      loveendures

      Twenty point swing in a week between March 17 and March 24 - towards Obama.

      March 17 PPP Survey in NC

      Obama   44
      Clinton 43

      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

      March 24  PPP Survey in NC

      Obama   55
      Clinton 34

      That's a 20 point swing in one week.  

      The March 30-31 PPP Survey in NC shows not much change.

      Obama  54
      Clinto 36

      But the comments in the latest PPP survey in NC contain what may be a telling point:

      Obama leads Clinton 54-36. His lead is particularly strong among likely voters who do
      not have a history of voting in primaries. With that group he has a 60-32 advantage
      .

      So if PPP did change their universe to include likely general election voters to try and more accurately pick up likely voters in this primary (who would not have been included based on prior non-voting in primaries), that may have a large impact.
      http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

      Think of the constitution as a levee. Think of our democracy as New Orleans.

      by Into The Woods on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 04:19:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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