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View Diary: Math: Revised Predictions PA Turnout/Popular Vote Ranges (39 comments)

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  •  I don't know, I haven't done that analysis (3+ / 0-)
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    petral, soms, 1 20 2009

    He doesn't win indies by such an overwhelming margin that it would have changed the outcome, it just would have been closer.  Hard to say.  But he'd have gained more delegates and the popular vote total would have been even more in his favor today.  It shows how illegitimate the notion of popular vote in primaries due to inconsistencies is compared with a consistent popular vote count in the general.

    Calloused hand by calloused hand.

    by PocketNines on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 10:13:45 PM PDT

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    •  By the way (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I think your diaries are incredible and I'm awed that you and Chuck Todd are e-mail buddies!

    •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
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      but hey how else can you convince low information voters that the nomination is being stolen from you despite losing by every potentially meaningful metric?

      "Turncoat! Killer! Liar! Thief! Criminal with protection of the law..."

      by 1 20 2009 on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 10:18:31 PM PDT

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    •  So let's get this straight (0+ / 0-)

      In Obama's home state, the place where folks are most familiar with him, and a state that favored Kerry by 10% in '04 and Gore by 12% in '00 (IOW, solidly Blue), Obama won an open primary by 31% (64-33).

      Meanwhile, in Clinton's home state,  the place where folks are most familiar with her, and a state that favored Kerry by 18% in '04 and Gore by 25% in '00 (IOW, incredibly Blue), Hillary won a closed primary by 17 points (57-40), and the margin would almost certainly have been less had it been an open primary (my quick back of the envelope calc shows that, using your estimate of 40% greater turnout in an open primary, had Obama taken those indies/Repubs 55-45, the margin would have been ~54-44.  Heck, even if they split those voters 50-50 it would have been 55-43.

      So, the folks who know Obama best love him, the folks who know Hillary best...not so much

      Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery; none but ourselves can free our minds

      by synchronicityii on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:23:21 PM PDT

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