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View Diary: Math: Revised Predictions PA Turnout/Popular Vote Ranges (39 comments)

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  •  thanks for doing (0+ / 0-)

    although actually I think we are all somewhat pulling numbers out of various orifices.

    In Pennsylvania, do we not have to adjust whatever base numbers with which we come up by the additional factor of the increased Democratic registration, both by new registrants and switchers? And dlo we really have any sure basis of determining how those people will split on the 22nd?  Based on the anecdotal evidence, I would argue that they will split no worse than 3-2 for Obama, and that we should expect a 70-80% turnout rate as the floor for their participation.  I am not sure how many of the current polling models include such people as likely voters, since they have never voted in a previous Democratic primary, and some have not voted in the 2006 general.

    Just an additional factor or three to consider.

    Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

    by teacherken on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:12:28 AM PDT

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    •  I have to believe that every state (0+ / 0-)

      showed a registration surge prior to its primary and that the recent registrants voted in higher proportions than the existing base of voters.  So I think it cancels out.  I think it's close enough to be not worth drilling into and more fits in the "English" you put on the ball when you predict what turnout percentage compared to the average turnout for closed primaries will be.

      Calloused hand by calloused hand.

      by PocketNines on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 02:46:56 PM PDT

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