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View Diary: CO-Sen: Schaffer Plays Martyr (64 comments)

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  •  Schaffer was toast BEFORE this story broke (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    homoaffectional

    This state is going even more strongly Dem than in '06. It's just one more nail in Schaffer's political coffin. The GOP method of dealing with the truth - deny, then demonize the truth-tellers - is hopelessly out of touch. They can't win with that crap anymore.

    •  Don't get cocky (0+ / 0-)

      The polling doesn't back that up. Right now Udall has a one-point lead. Last month Schaffer did.

      Given the 2004 and 2006 results I still say it's Udall's to lose, but there's a long way between now and November.

      •  Um... no... (0+ / 0-)

        ... by "the polling", you mean Rasmussen polls, which are always skewed to favor the Repubs.  Other, more recent polling has shown Udall with a 12-15 point lead over Schaeffer.

        Anyway, whatever the commenter says, I'm sure Colorado Dems know not to take much for granted, so don't worry about that.

        •  You are talking about one poll (0+ / 0-)

          I am talking about all other polls. As in every single other poll is within the margin of error.

          One data point does not make a trend. And since the poll you refer to, a Republican group ran two solid weeks of TV ads propping Schaffer up. We haven't seen any polling since those ads ran.

          This will not be an easy race. To make any assumptions would be folly.

          •  "All other polls"... (0+ / 0-)

            ... have one thing in common -- they are all by Rasmussen, which is "a Republican group" in and of itself.

            You are correct that we shouldn't take anything for granted, but at the same time, we shouldn't give this particular pollster any credence it doesn't deserve.

        •  I don't think Udall has (0+ / 0-)

          or will enjoy a 12-15 point lead.  Regardless of all the Schaffer-related scandals coming out, the Republicans will vote for him this November.

          Mark Udall and us CO progressives will have to work hard to convince independents that voting for Schaffer is a horrible idea.

          Outside of CO-04 and CO-02, few Coloradans know who is even running for this Senate seat.  Current polling of these two probably isn't different from a generic Dem and generic Repub.

          •  I'm just saying... (0+ / 0-)

            ... that we're somewhere in between that poll and the Rasmussen polls.  Of course, my policy is to never take anything for granted, so I agree with people who are advocating for that, I am just staunchly opposed to giving Rasmussen polls credibility they don't deserve.

      •  The polling doesn't account (0+ / 0-)

        for the enormous disparity in turnout, Dem vs GOP, that we're seeing in this cycle. If that holds up, and there's no reason to believe it won't, there will be a LOT of lopsided GOP losses nationwide. Anybody who even looks like a part of the status quo, particularly on the Republican side, is going to lose big.

    •  Interesting map in the Denver Post (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WeatherDem

      this morning--distribution of donors between Obama and Clinton. Boulder is deep red for Obama as well as Aspen. Vail and what looks like Castle Pines in Douglas County heavily for Clinton. More Obama donors than Clinton.

      Unfortunately, there are wide swaths of gray where no one even dreamed of contributing to the Democrats--minisucle donations from El Paso Co. (Colorado Springs). The Democrats will carry Denver and Boulder, probably Aspen and Vail. The great outback will vote Republican, as always.

      Shaeffer is a bit of a self-righteous prig--irritates people and didn't do well in the Rep. primary against Beauprez (who lost to Salazar). Mark Udall could squeak by. We're moving blue.

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