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View Diary: SurveyUSA: Obama Gaining in Indiana, Rasmussen: Obama Dominating Nationally (62 comments)

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  •  Poll fluctuations (0+ / 0-)

    will favor the challenger in terms of media attention --

    - when the favorite gains, it confirms beliefs and so is not news

    - when the challenger gains, it is "news" because it runs against the narrative

    So even though the same question polled on several days will have random fluctuations, some changes get played as news even if they are within the margin of error. That's why god pollsters try to use things like a three-day moving average for tracking polls.

    "Stare at the monster: remark/ How difficult it is to define just what/ Amounts to monstrosity in that/ Very ordinary appearance." - Ted Hughes

    by MarkC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 09:47:15 AM PDT

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