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View Diary: NC early votes huge, 326,341 Dem ballots in, 39.3% Black (289 comments)

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  •  What does skin color... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mtheorist

    have to do with this?  I know black people who are backing Hillary and white people who are backing Barack.

    Blogging For Michigan-A blog so good Republicons had us censored!

    by djtyg on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:10:33 PM PDT

    •  Demographics... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      djtyg, lauramp, arainsb123, debrazza

      Obama's going to get 90% of the black vote, so if the total vote is 40% black, that means if he gets 40% of the white vote, he'll win 60-40.

      •  I understand demographics... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mrblifil, Ambboogie

        I'm just saying that assuming someone's going to vote some way because of their skin color is condescending.

        There are even some black republicons out there.

        Blogging For Michigan-A blog so good Republicons had us censored!

        by djtyg on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:14:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  We're talking about group numbers here... (8+ / 0-)

          Not individual level data. We're not assuming things about individual voters, but rather how those voters are behaving as a group. And as countless primaries have shown us so far, African American voters are breaking overwhelmingly for Obama.

          Put it another way - in order for Clinton to win North Carolina, she'd have to get about 75% of the white vote if the current demographics hold up. That's just not going to happen.

        •  Demographics is destiny, actually didn't you hear (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          djtyg, senex

          We black people hate Hillary's guts.  Our vote right now is about as predictable as a born-again snake waving pentacostal voting for Bush in 2004,

          •  You haven't actually answered the question (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            djtyg

            and where did you get 90%AA voting for Obama in NC? Pulled out of your you-know-what? That's exactly what the man is saying: you're running full of it assuming that because I'm AA, I'll vote a definite way, and that's not always the case. NC is not SC is not VA is not PA, dig?

            For one, 40%AA early voter turnout means most AA have already voted early. This will not be the overall AA turnout percentage. When the white vote comes in Tuesday, then we'll know the AA percentage turnout overall.

            And we'll know whether Obama got 90% AA votes, which is posssible but not probable, or 68%, and that will make a difference relative to how many white voters turnout and how they break. Nothing is cast in stone.

            Jeremiah Wright is Alright, Goddamn It!

            by 174winchell on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:05:37 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well... (0+ / 0-)
              1. Obama has had 85-90% of the black vote in virtually every primary.
              1. I'm not assuming individual African Americans will vote a certain way. I'm saying that, as a group, roughly 90% will vote for Obama, and 10% for Hillary. Give or take a few percent.
              1. 40% AA early voter turnout does not mean most AA have voted already. In fact, most polls peg the AA turnout at about 30%. Even with 30% AA turnout on election day, Obama would have to get less than 30% of the white vote to lose.
              1. The white vote in North Carolina is much different than rural Pennsylvania or South Carolina. These are the white-collar voters that have supported him all along.
              1. Republicans cannot vote in this primary. So the heavily Republican areas of the state will be underrepresented.
            •  African-American voters (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Dave Sund

              The number of African-Americans who have voted in the Democratic primary so far is only about 20.8% of those who voted in the 2004 general election, and about 11.2% of registered African-Americans.

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