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View Diary: NC early votes huge, 326,341 Dem ballots in, 39.3% Black (289 comments)

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  •  Disagree (5+ / 0-)

    Obama's ground operation, by all accounts, is very good in North Carolina. Have you even heard any anecdotal evidence about Clinton's ground game there? I sure haven't.  Easley himself admitted he didn't have a machine to deliver votes, and the reaction he got at the JJ dinner last night should show you that he won't be influencing very many people.  

    People need to stop over-thinking where these candidates spend their time.  It does not necessarily reflect their internals when they decide to schedule events for one state or another in my opinion.  Furthermore, Clinton is in Indiana tonight, and will be here tomorrow too.  She has the luxury of having Bill Clinton too, which Obama does not.  

    Lastly, if you do want to project a bit, Obama was in Indiana all of today, will be here tomorrow during the day, and in the evening for our JJ Dinner. Plus, he will be here on Monday night for his last rally.  Does that sound like a candidate who thinks he's going to lose North Carolina or not win Indiana?

    •  Ground game (0+ / 0-)

      I wouldnt put too much into ground game..

      I heard about this ground game in TX and PA...specially in philly where the ground game failed to bring enough AA voters out to cancel out Hillary lead in other places.

      I wouldnt get too cocky about the Obama ground game...Those folks dismissed the philly people and this might be the reason why they did not bring out enough AA in philly.

      •  Oh come on (6+ / 0-)

        TX and PA were already projected to be big Clinton states.. the most the ground game could have done was narrow the gap, and they DID.

        Using Hillary's Logic, IF my Aunt had balls she'd be my Uncle.

        by Ambboogie on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:16:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've been reading... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          biscobosco

          About Lee Atwater (doing a paper that I should be working on right now). One thing he said was that a good ground game can get you 3-5 points, and if that doesn't make the difference, you were never going to win anyway.

          •  keep in mind (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Dave Sund

            Clinton was originally expected to win PA by 20 points, and she only won by 9. That's far more than that 3-5 points you're reading about.

            There hasn't been a campaign like Obama's and that's clear, so using past projections and assumptions just don't work with what's going on with his campaign.

            He's bucked expectations ever since the primary began.

            Using Hillary's Logic, IF my Aunt had balls she'd be my Uncle.

            by Ambboogie on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:51:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  You're dismissing the Rendell machine (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        biscobosco

        Rendell's machine is so powerful that it prevented the African American mayor of Philadelphia (who is loyal to the Governor who is loyal to Clinton)from coming out for the candidate he probably, in his heart, wanted to win.

        As we have seen in New York, California, PA and Massachusetts, states that have big Democratic machines will trump an insurgent's ground game every time.

        North Carolina doesn't have the same kind of machine that NY and PA and MA do.

        Let's just hope that Obama can make sure these machines don't stand on the sidelines in November.

        Not all who wander are lost. J. R. R. Tolkien

        by NCJan on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:44:41 PM PDT

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        •  yep. you nailed it. (0+ / 0-)

          In PA you had obama's turn out and ground game working against statewide strong machine politics/ground game...

          Plus he wouldnt pay the traditional street money there.. and though that wins him points in the big ledger I wonder whether it lost him on the ground.

          The opposite in NC - support from local pols in turnout, and no big machine supporting Clinton.

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