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View Diary: Final NC delegate prediction: Obama 63, Clinton 52 (94 comments)

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  •  Great work as usual... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Yomberto, soms, Joe Beese

    psyfighter37.  BTW, what's your record for the past primaries?

    "We're all working for the Pharaoh" - Richard Thompson

    by mayan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:24:18 PM PDT

    •  I only predicted Pennsylvania... (13+ / 0-) serious detail. On a general level, I have picked every state correctly except for New Hampshire, California, New Mexico, and the Texas primary.

      In my Pennsylvania analysis, I nailed the delegate count (85-73), although I got some districts wrong (underestimated Obama's support in urban Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, overestimated his support in the Philadelphia suburbs). I came very close to the popular vote (I predicted 54.4%-45.6%; it turned out to be 54.6%-45.4%). Some of my luck may have been due to the fact that I've been in the state for the past 4 years (as a college student) and was more familiar.

      We'll see how my IN and NC predictions turn out, but given the general ability for political observers to pretty much call a race based on demographics at this point, I feel relatively comfortable with these predictions.

      •  Thanks...excellent work! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mommaK, soms

        Highly informative.  Recommended.  

        "We're all working for the Pharaoh" - Richard Thompson

        by mayan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:29:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  What happened in PA CD 7, 10 ? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Obama was a few hundred votes behind from flipping a delegate in each of those two CDs.

        Any updates on that?


        During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act. - George Orwell

        by MAORCA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:33:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I suspect he ended up losing there (0+ / 0-)

          On the Obama website, they also updated their count to 85-73, which makes me suspect that Clinton was able to maintain her slim margin in CD-07.

          I think you're talking about CD-11 (CD-10 was easily a 3-1 break for Clinton); Clinton got 70.7% to get a 4-1 split in her 'hometown' district.

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