#### Comment Preferences

• ##### Pretty good...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
peacefully

...for a pessimistic prediction, I must say. Goes to show that Obama should be fine.

• ##### Do(0+ / 0-)

you have % of (registered Dem) African-American vote by district?

I'm using guesswork based on % of overall vote, which is too imprecise.

• ##### Nah...(0+ / 0-)

I was working off of census numbers, which are bound to be even more imprecise. However, given that early AA voting topped 40%, it's hard to imagine such a steep drop tomorrow to drag it below 30%.

• ##### Well(0+ / 0-)

look at this.

Using Poblanos numbers for percentage of black voters, and jacking them up 75% to account for a Dem primary, I get the following.

% of vote that is black

CD-1 0.68
CD-2 0.39
CD-3 0.22
CD-4 0.25
CD-5 0.10
CD-6 0.12
CD-7 0.28
CD-8 0.39
CD-9 0.18
CD-10 0.11
CD-11 0.07
CD-12 0.59
CD-13 0.36

Add it all up and it is 29%.

Then give 90% of their vote to Obama.  Split the 3% of others.  And use a baseline of 63% for whites, adjusted for education levels, and you get my numbers.

• ##### actually(0+ / 0-)

a more accurate calculation, I now realize, is 31%.

• ##### NC AA % by CD(0+ / 0-)

The NC board of elections has published its 2007 registration numbers by CD.  The African-American voters are not separated by party; about 4% of AA voters are Republicans.

The percentages of African-American voters relative to Democratic and Unaffiliated voters combined, for each congressional district, were at the beginning of this year:

01--59.8
02--43.5
03--23.5
04--25.9
05--12.1
06--16.2
07--28.4
08--39.4
09--20.2
10--14.0
11--5.3
12--62.3
13--37.3

I'd expect the delegates of NC-02 to break O4-C2.

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