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View Diary: Final NC delegate prediction: Obama 63, Clinton 52 (94 comments)

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  •  Forget it (0+ / 0-)

    If blacks make up a third of the primary voters in the district, then Obama will have to get 63% of the white and other vote to get 72.2%.  To get the 61.1%, he will need about 46.5%, a much more doable figure.

    The Clintons are corrupt selfish race baiting zero character scumbags. I'd rather be run over by a tractor-trailer than willfully vote for any Clinton again.

    by IhateBush on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:52:05 PM PDT

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    •  He will do well with white vote (0+ / 0-)

      in the liberal bastions. Chapel Hill is in this district.

      "In Japan, American occupation forces quickly became 50,000 friends. In Iraq, they would quickly become 50,000 terrorist targets. " James Webb, Sep 02

      by ParaHammer on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:54:50 PM PDT

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      •  He may in Chapel Hill (0+ / 0-)

        but he won't get 60+% of the white vote in Durham or Wake Counties, let alone whatever else is in the district.

        The Clintons are corrupt selfish race baiting zero character scumbags. I'd rather be run over by a tractor-trailer than willfully vote for any Clinton again.

        by IhateBush on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:58:00 PM PDT

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        •  my canvassing experience says different (0+ / 0-)

          but we will see.

          "In Japan, American occupation forces quickly became 50,000 friends. In Iraq, they would quickly become 50,000 terrorist targets. " James Webb, Sep 02

          by ParaHammer on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:22:24 PM PDT

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          •  I see him around 50% of the white vote in Durham (0+ / 0-)

            At my work, I'd say the Obama vote is 60-80% of the grad students/postdocs and under 50 with the faculty, and my sense is Durham at large the white vote will probably be around 50%.  I haven't canvassed any white neighborhoods, just my personal sense of things from the people I know.

            There's definitely a huge pool of potential Obama voters amoungst the black vote...I canvassed a middle class neighborhood over the weekend and only 20% had early voted.  The neighborhood I canvassed today (a very transitional neighborhood) maybe only 10% had voted, and everyone I talked to said they were going to vote...it just remains to be seen how many actually turn out.

            So, I'd say that Durham County will easily go for Obama, but I don't see it getting above 50% of the white vote.

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