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  •  NC prediction from PA results (0+ / 0-)

    From exit polls, Obama got 37% of the White vote in PA. If he can get that % in, PA it can be safely assumed that he will get at least 37% in NC.

    15% of the turnout in PA came from Blacks, and IIRC they make up only 11.5% of the electorate. That means 30% premium for enthusiasm. Now Blacks make up 30% of the Dem.primary electorate in NC. Applying 30% premium, Blacks will make up 39% of the turnout.

    So 39*90% + 61*37% = 57.67%

    Obama wins NC by 58-42 (57.67-42.33).

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