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View Diary: WV delegate prediction: Clinton 20, Obama 8 (88 comments)

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  •  Cool...been waiting for your analysis on WV (7+ / 0-)


    My prediction:
    Clinton : 16 delegates
    Obama   : 12 delegates

    Yep.  I'm pulling the numbers out of my ass, but I think(and hope) that the good people of West Virginia will begin to rally around Obama, even though it's a solid Clinton state.  

    No way in hell she gets over 70% of the vote, or even 60%.  

    Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

    by darthstar on Mon May 12, 2008 at 01:01:38 PM PDT

    •  That is extremely optimistic (7+ / 0-)

      I will be shocked if Obama gets more than 1/3 of the vote - and that's assuming he picks up the lion's share of the undecided vote.

      •  Yes, it is a little extreme, but we don't know (0+ / 0-)

        how much impact the weekend has had on the good people of West Virginia.  And I do think that they're seeing the writing on the wall...and who wants to vote for a loser when they know the race is lost?

        Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

        by darthstar on Mon May 12, 2008 at 01:15:53 PM PDT

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      •  Edwards and Uncommitted? (0+ / 0-)

        Good job, but did you factor in the other people on the ballot at all?  If Obama can take 30% to Clinton's 60% and "other" gets 10%, doesn't that effectively get him 1/3 for delegate purposes?  Explicitly... 30/(30 + 60) = 1/3

        I would think a number of people not wanting to vote for Obama but yet not wanting to vote for "the loser" Clinton might take the option of a protest vote for Edwards or someone else.

        I wish my border collie could run for President.

        by svotaw1992 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 02:03:34 PM PDT

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        •  Uncommitted (0+ / 0-)

          is only on the ballot in Kentucky, not in WV.  Edwards is on the ballot in both states.

          The Clintons are corrupt selfish race baiting zero character scumbags. I'd rather be run over by a tractor-trailer than willfully vote for any Clinton again.

          by IhateBush on Mon May 12, 2008 at 02:13:07 PM PDT

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      •  but what will Edwards draw (0+ / 0-)

        lets say for argument's sake that Obama draws 35% - just over 1/3, and Edwards draws 5%.  That leaves 60% for Clinton.

        But if Edwards is unviable everywhere, even Rahall's district, then Clinton's percentage statewide is only just over 63%  (.60 / .95)

        and I also think that some Clinton supporters may be discouraged feeling it doesn't matter, and not necessarily turn out.

        I don't quarrel with your overall outlook.  I don't think it will go to 21-7, and would probably flip a coin between 20-8 and 19-9 - and given the Demographics of 2nd in general and the fact he made a big appearance in Charleston today, that could make a difference around the margins.

        Also, does anyone have any idea of what turnout in Morgantown at WVU is likely to be?

        Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

        by teacherken on Mon May 12, 2008 at 02:19:46 PM PDT

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    •  If you were near, I'd rub your ass for luck (0+ / 0-)

      A liberal is a conversative who drank the Kool-Aid---Trust me when I say that Progressive Catholic Democrats Do Exist!

      by mselite on Mon May 12, 2008 at 02:38:14 PM PDT

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