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View Diary: MS-Sen: Within striking range (62 comments)

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  •  Presidential numbers are disappointing (0+ / 0-)

    Since it's Mississippi, you have to figure that most of the undecideds will go Republican - Obama's not doing much better than Kerry here.

    •  Except for black undecideds... (0+ / 0-)

      Who will likely go heavily for Obama. But, yeah, this poll probably works out to about 57-43, which isn't even close.

      Musgrove's going to have a better shot, though - and Obama driving up African American turnout will certainly help his chances.

    •  I wouldn't assume quite that much (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      But we'll definitely see come November.  The racism factor here is large, but nothing like Appalachia as far as I can tell.  It'll depend largely on the economy at the time.

      You could probably assume that Sen race is somewhat closer when you take the 18% undecided African American vote and throw it in with Musgrove downticket of Obama.

    •  eh watch Obam use the hundreds of millions (0+ / 0-)

      he has to put at least some money in this state and make McCain either defend or call his bluff.

      The tactical options here alone are interesting and all on Obama's side.

      •  Actually (0+ / 0-)

        Last month, the RNC+McCain both raised more money and had more cash on hand than Obama+the DNC.

        Obama won't have a big money advantage in the general. At best, he'll be on par.

        •  Yes but, (0+ / 0-)

          Obama is only getting donations from at best 60% of the party. And the DNC's fundraising will pick up big time once they have a nominee.

        •  um (0+ / 0-)

          here's the thing McCain is essentially cheating and yes right now he's getting alot of money.

          But at the same time he's not getting alot of donors thus McCain's money is going to tank at some point unless he gets more donors.

          Obama is averaging under a 100 dollars per donor (out of 2,300 max). Just think about that for a second

          Now think about what will happen when the 1.5+ million people give another 100 dollars (and many of those will give alot more to defeat McCain).

          It's not inconvieable that in the general alone that Obama could have 500 million to spend.

          Thus if he spends 10 million in AL does it really matter? Especially if it makes McCain spend money or sweat a little.

          •  Contributions to McCain are limited to $2300 (0+ / 0-)

            But contributions to the RNC are not. And since McCain is legally allowed to coordinate with the RNC, there's effectively no limit to how much he can raise.

            •  there is (0+ / 0-)

              because there are limits to how much you can contribute to the RNC in terms of cooridinating with McCain.

              I believe the total is something around 66,000 per person (god i wish I had 66,000 just laying around).

              Thus McCain is limited.

              Of course he can just have the RNC and 527s do  thier own thing but that could get messy and disorganized. Plus I'd start waiting for one or the other to do or say something that McCain would have to apologize for.

      •  Obama's spending a lot right now... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ivorybill, wyvern

        To fend off Hillary. I don't doubt that we'll see a massive influx of CoH for him and the DNC once he clinches the nomination, but for right now don't assume he's got money to burn.

        I have no doubt that he'll organize in Mississippi. With the largest African American population in the South it's a great target for voter registration. And that can help everyone.

        •  he already (0+ / 0-)

          has more then 40 million in cash on hand according to the last FEC report.

          Thus even though he's out spending Clinton he's obviously not spending it all

          Further he has so many donors and donations that watch him raise over a billion dollars combined between the primairy and general.

          •  He spent more than he raised... (0+ / 0-)

            This last month.

            He'll have a lot of money. But that doesn't mean he'll have unlimited resources or time.

            I fully expect he'll invest in every corner of the country where he has even a remote chance of winning. Start the playing field out as broad as possible.

            •  I didn't mean to imply he has infinite time (0+ / 0-)

              or money

              But he almost practically has unlimited money, especially when you talk about Obame haveing 4-8 times the amount of money McCain does.

              And that money can then be leveraged into time.

              I think overall we agree though.

              As for the financing, I don't know the specifics I just know what is reported to the FEC and in terms of money Obama is still the best off.

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