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View Diary: OH-04: Konop, Kerry show surprising viability (77 comments)

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  •  What's going to happen to Specter vs Hoeffel race (none)
    IhateBush, assuming large Philadelphia area turnout, how will the Senate race play out?
    What I heard was, Hoeffel is not doing too well in the polls, and Pennsylvania AFL-CIO just endorsed Specter . . .

     

    •  Really tough to say (none)
      It's going to be far closer than the polls indicate, but I'm concerned that there could be a lot of ticket splitting in the Philly suburbs and even in Philly for Specter.  Specter has a reputation(undeserved) as a moderate, and that will play well in the Philly suburbs.  A massive turnout in Philly certainly helps Hoeffel.(which is why the race will becloser than the polls show.)  A massive turnout in the suburbs helps Kerry, but might also help Specter.  

      Hoeffel needs to get better known in the state.  His base is in the Philly area, but that's Specter's home area as well.  A wild card is Jim Clymer, who is running on the Constitution Party banner, who will eat up right-wing votes.  Right-wing 3rd parties have gotten as much as 14% here a couple times in the 1990s. But that would still require Hoeffel to probably get over 45%.  He might do it, but name recognition and money is still a problem.  Gosh this would be much easier if Toomey had won the primary. (I actually volunteered for Toomey in the Rethug primary to try to make this happen.)  

      I think Specter will probably win narrowly unless there is a late surge that has undecideds not only rejecting W but also the entire Rethug cabal.  Which is very possible this year.  

      •  It would have been easy if Toomey won (none)
        IhateBush, I agree with you that if Pat Toomey won the primary (Who lost by only 15,000 out of 1 million votes if I am correct.), Hoeffel would have won easily, but that being said, I agree with you that Specter is "seen" as a moderate, so there might make many voters to split their votes.
        If Hoeffel doesn't win this time, I hope he will try again in 2006 to challenge Rick Santorum who seems too conservative for Pennsylvania (He seems vulnerable since he made the sodomy bigamy polygamy incest adultery comment last year.).

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