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View Diary: PR Delegate Predictions (23 comments)

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  •  Your predictions (0+ / 0-)

    First of all, let me congratulate you on a very exceptional analysis.  Are you Puerto Rican?  It's an excellent assessment of the island in terms of demographics.  You should check my diary, which shows the districts visually:

    As others have mentioned, you need to take into account the party machines (even though legally they cannot be used).  

    I'll follow your diary one by one in terms of party machinery.  I don't buy the polls on the income/education splits:

    Senate District 1 - San Juan: The first district takes in all of San Juan and a portion of (relatively) wealthy Guaynabo. It has the second-highest black population at 15.3%, the highest percentage of students (10.8%), and the highest percentage of college graduates (28.7%) and individuals with graduate or professional degrees (10.3%). It also has the highest percentage of households with median income over $75,000 (9.1%). It is also the only district with six delegates, and Obama will easily win the 25% he needs to get two of them. If he can break 43.75%, he will split the delegates 3-3.

    Clinton: 3 delegates
    Obama: 3 delegates

    Higher income, higher educated Puerto Ricans tend to support the NPP.  The same applies for Black Puerto Ricans in this area.  Also, Guaynabo and San Juan are mostly pro-statehood.  I tend to go 4-2 for Clinton on this one.

    Senate District 2 - Bayamon: This district has the highest median household income ($20,139) and the lowest poverty levels in Puerto Rico. Education levels, while not as high as in the San Juan district, are still well above average. The black population (12.2%) is about average for the commonwealth. Five delegates are at stake here, and Obama should get two of them. However, Clinton should carry the district and the third delegate.

    Clinton: 3 delegates
    Obama: 2 delegates

    This is the most pro-statehood district on the island.  I tend to go 4-1 for Clinton on this one.

    Senate District 3 - Arecibo: The is district has the lowest black population in Puerto Rico (6.2%), and the education and income levels are substantially lower than the commonwealth average. Obama does have the endorsement of two mayors in the district, in Arecibo and Dorado. The district has four delegates, and Obama need only reach the 15% viability threshold to claim one of them. He should do that comfortably, but he will have significantly more difficulty reaching the 37.5% needed for a 2-2 split.

    Clinton: 3 delegates
    Obama: 1 delegate

    I don't agree here because the pro-commonwealth element will become important.  Lower income voters will tend to support Obama.  This is either 2-2 or 3-1 for Obama.

    Senate District 4 - Mayaguez: High poverty, low education levels and a small black population (6.7%) give Clinton the advantage in this district. Clinton campaigned heavily in the district duing her last visit to the island. There are four delegates here, and she will take three of them.

    Clinton: 3 delegates
    obama: 1 delegate

    The reason why Clinton campaigned so heavily here is because she is weak in Mayaguez.  Low income voters will tend to support Obama.  This should be for Obama by 3-1.

    Senate District 5 - Ponce: The largest district in the commonwealth looks like it may be Obama's worst. With a median household income of $11,662, it is the poorest in the commonwealth, and only 6.3% of residents identify as black. The Mayor of Ponce has endorsed Clinton, although he attended a rally in the city with Bill Richardson. Both of the candidates to replace him also support Clinton. Obama should still do well enough to secure one of the district's four delegates

    Clinton: 3 delegates
    Obama: 1 delegate

    Statehooders are aligned with your assessment on this one.  The commonwealthers disagree.  I go with the statehooders on this one.

    Senate District 6 - Guayama: This district, located on the southern coast of the island, is home to the largest share of residents who speak no English (44.0%). Less than 14% of residents have at least a bachelor's degree, which is also the lowest on the island. The district is not as poor as the neighboring 5th or even the 4th, and it is home to a larger black population (9.0%). This four-delegate district should vote heavily enough for Clinton for her to win 3 of its 4 delegates.
    Clinton: 3 delegates
    Obama: 1 delegate

    It's the opposite.  This is strong pro-commonwealth territory.  Low income voters who speak only Spanish will tend to support Obama.  Obama should take this 3 to 1.

    Senate District 7 - Humacao:
    The 7th district is demographically similar to the island as a whole. Income levels in the district are slightly below average for the island, and the district's black population is slightly above average (11.7%). Obama should benefit from mayoral endorsments in Humacao, Caguas, and Yabucoa, which together should cast about half of the vote in this district. Clinton needs to win by 25% to carry 3 of the 4 delegates here.

    Clinton: 2 delegates
    Obama: 2 delegates

    This is absolutely on the money.  Both sides tell me this is a toss up.

    Senate District 8 - Carolina: This is the most heavily black district in Puerto Rico (21%), and it has the highest proportion of residents who either speak English at home or speak English "very well" (33%). Income and education levels are above average. Obama has mayoral endorsements in Loiza and Carolina, as well as the endorsement of a community organization on the island of Vieques. This is a five-delegate district, so Obama should be able to break the 30% threshold required to win 2 delegates. I think he'll actually just break the 50% mark and take three of five delegates here.

    Obama: 3 delegates
    Clinton: 2 delegates

    The pro-commonwealth PDP leaders agree with you.  The newest info I got from the pro-statehood NPP disagrees with you.  I tend to agree with the commonwealthers on this one.

    At Large & PLEO: The winner of the commonwealth will take at least 10 of the 19 unpledged delegates. The thresholds for additional delegates are 54.2%, 62.5%, 64.3%, 70.8%, 78.6%, and 79.2%. I predict a result around 60-40, and thus the following split:

    Clinton: 7 at-large delegates, 4 pledged PLEO delegates
    Obama: 5 at-large delegates, 3 pledged PLEO delegates

    I agree with this.

    That gives us a final delegate split of:
    Clinton: 33 delegates
    Obama: 22 delegates

    So my district count is the following:

    Clinton:  18
    Obama:  18

    I think Clinton wins the commonwealth by +4 to 5 pts.  So I agree with your assessment there:

    Clinton:  18+7=25
    Obama:  18+5+23

    Then you have to add the superdelegates, which have committed to Clinton 4 to 2 with one uncommitted. Let's assume that person goes with the winner. So that gives you:

    Clinton 30
    Obama 25

    The final question is the 1 Unpledged add-on and the 7 Pledged PLEOs (i.e., selected by Puerto Rico Democratic Party General Assembly on June 21 -- these are like super duper delegates!).  Assuming they go with the island winner, the total would be:

    Clinton 38
    Obama 25

    Assuming they go with Obama, then you have a reversal:

    Clinton 30
    Obama 33

    And if they split equally:

    Clinton 34
    Obama 29

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