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View Diary: The latino vote and the (wrong) CW (197 comments)

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  •  Obama will win Hispanics (2+ / 0-)
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    xysea, MA Voter

    that was really never in doubt.  But its the margin that matters.  Winning it 55-45 or 60-40 is very weak for a Democrat.  
    McCain isn't getting 30%, so his performance isn't great, but neither is Obama's 60%.  

    My guess is that Obama wins Hispanics 65-35 at the end, which is still fairly weak for a Democrat.

    It's the same thing with blacks.  If a Democrat wins 80-20 among blacks, s/he won them by a large margin.  But if a white Repub is getting 20% among blacks, that is a weak performance for the Democrat.

    John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.

    by IhateBush on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 08:21:24 AM PDT

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    •  Turnout matters here (2+ / 0-)
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      newjeffct, CParis

      Obama, it is increasingly obvious, is a polarizing figure (his massive charisma is probably a big part of this).  

      Say Obama only wins 65% of Latinos because he turns many of them off with his style and approach.  If he takes only 65%, but comparatively draws out 33% more Latinos to the polls because of his polarizing factor, that is equivalent (in terms ov vote pluralities) that is as good as winning 70% in a normal year.  In fact, because of the increasing number of Latino voters, it would be better.

      But the 60-23 number quoted means that the numbers look better for Obama than 65%.  If the remaining 17% break 50-50, that is 68.5% Dem.  If the remaining 17% break in the same ratio as decideds, that's 72.3% Dem.  Trend is upward and, in my view, is likely to continue as McCain embraces more anti-immigration positions in order to shore up his base - this will drive some socially conservative Latinos away from McCain and towards Obama as they work through what McCain's positions on immigration really are.

      Obama is heading for a landslide among Latinos - comfortably over 70% and with very high turnout.

      Pres. Obama and a Democratic Congress must commit to joining the International Criminal Court. Bring war criminals and torturers to justice.

      by Tybalt on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 08:43:49 AM PDT

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      •  Blacks and Hispanics are ahead of the curve (0+ / 0-)

        Commander Codpiece has had terrible approval ratings among African Americans (down to the single digits).  His administration's incompetence in nearly every area has slopped onto the entire GOP and any inroads they were making among Blacks and Hispanics are now lost.  
        McMaverick might get a couple of votes from the 50s generaton Cubans in Florida, but the GOP has f-ked it up for at least a decade.

        What a waste it is to lose one's mind. Or not to have a mind is being very wasteful. How true that is. ~ Dan Quayle

        by CParis on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 08:51:14 AM PDT

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      •  Polarizing? (1+ / 0-)
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        •  Polarizing? Absolutely! (0+ / 0-)

          Few people that I speak to are ambivalent or indifferent to Barack Obama.  He inspires enormous emotions - mostly for good, some for bad - and the populace as a whole seems to take an enormous interest in him.  He inspires - he has inspired enormous amounts of partisanship amongst many for the first time - something we saw in that incredible upset win in the Primary.

          He energizes.

          And yes, some of that energy is directed against him (and it will "only grow louder and more dissonant").  But that energy will also be the foundation of a new politics in America and a new political class, dedicated to the reinvention and revitalization of the United States - a new political class that will take on the naysayers, the doomsayers, the racists and the dead-enders.

          Pres. Obama and a Democratic Congress must commit to joining the International Criminal Court. Bring war criminals and torturers to justice.

          by Tybalt on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 09:13:53 AM PDT

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