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View Diary: Gallup's biases (166 comments)

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  •  How many independents support Kerry (none)
    I did a calculation...using the numbers from the article that Kos linked to.

    If one assumes that 90% of Republicans support Bush and 90% of Democrats support Kerry (or at least that those numbers are pretty close) around 60% of independents support Kerry.  If the % of Republicans who support Bush is greater than the % of Democrats that support Kerry, that would seem to suggest that even GREATER THAN 60% of independents support Kerry.

    If you keep the breakdown % and switch it to a 35% R 35% D and 30% proportion, Kerry would actually lead 53-47.

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