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View Diary: Gallup's biases (166 comments)

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  •  It is possible ... (none)
    that there would be a party ID change, particularly in the short term. Party affiliation can change. Right after a party's convention, it is in fact quite possible that enthusiasm will be high and more people (esp. independents and undecideds) will identify with that party. It's also true that events such as 9/11 could change party affiliation, and it apparently did, but not in the long term.

    Let me note that I don't actually believe the party numbers that Gallup presents represent the actual voter turnout at the polls in November. I think their data is way off. But I do think that there could have been a bump in stated GOP party affiliation right after the convention.

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