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View Diary: Gallup's biases (166 comments)

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  •  Pew (none)
    For what it's worth, the Pew poll shows ShrubCo ahead by 8 as well, according to Reuters.

    Wonder how much their skew is?

    "Flip-flopping is a Conservative insult meaning 'thinks about the issues.'"

    by Bob in Atlanta on Tue Sep 28, 2004 at 02:38:05 PM PDT

    •  Well (none)
      Its not a question of the horserace DIFFERENTIAL, per se. Bush's horserace number is at 48, which suggests their polling is more accurate. Bush's horserace number is what most matters in rating these things, IMO. I'll care more about Kerry's in a months time.

      Ben P

      The United States has a conservative political culture defending a liberal heritage. The modern Republican Party's problem is that it is neither.

      by Ben P on Tue Sep 28, 2004 at 02:47:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Correct (none)
        High undecideds, and with MOE - 45-43 is just as likely, shen you consider the high undecideds, who the undecideds are, etc.

        One thing,if Kerry is up 45-42 with women, and Nush 52-37 with men, if it breaks down 50-50, then the number should be 47-41.  But if memory serves, more WOMEN than men vote, so it should be closer than that, in this poll

        "We're not criticizing Bush for going after terrorists, we're criticizing him for NOT going after terrorists." - Paraphrase of J. Kerry, tip to Gen. Clark

        by Armando on Tue Sep 28, 2004 at 03:05:18 PM PDT

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    •  What's up with the wild swings (none)
      in the Pew poll?

      Big Bush lead, then, tie, and now big Bush lead.

      No major events would have caused any of that wild fluctuation. That alone should tip any poll watcher off. I'm surprised Pew would release polling like that.  

      I'd bet money that the polling done by both campaigns show this race as a statistical tie nationally, with the electoral college pretty close, too.

      •  Not so wild (none)
        Actually within the MOE - Bush ranges from 46-48, Kerry a bit more 46-40.  The numbers move mainly from undecided to Kerry.

        No leaners, big undecided - I actually like this poll frankly.

        Last point, I think there is a math problem too - Kerry leads 45-42 with women, trails 37-52 with men - if it is 50/50 split, then the number should be 47-41.

        "We're not criticizing Bush for going after terrorists, we're criticizing him for NOT going after terrorists." - Paraphrase of J. Kerry, tip to Gen. Clark

        by Armando on Tue Sep 28, 2004 at 03:07:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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