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View Diary: ABC/WaPo: Obama By 8 with RVs, McCain Trailing By 19 On The Economy (144 comments)

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  •  Yes, we know who 'likely voters' are - they voted (0+ / 0-)

    last time.

    This is a question that is asked at the top of voter interviews, and hence is an important category.

    FIRE DAVID REMNICK. NOW.

    by muddy paws on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 06:16:45 AM PDT

    •  it's more than that (0+ / 0-)

      each pollster has a formula, including intent to vote, previous vote, etc and all the diferent LV screens are similar but not the same.

      The trouble is that in a large turnout election, the LV screen needs tweaking. By Oct 2004, the pollsters got it mostly right.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 07:06:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  here's a good comment from First read (0+ / 0-)

      (And right now, pollsters will tell you that with older voters leaning McCain these days, any likely voter model is going to favor McCain for now. If Obama moves younger voters as well as many observers assume come October, the likely voter numbers could change). In this poll, when you expand it to include all adults, Obama’s lead is 12 points (51%-39%). And two, 79% in the poll believe that Obama is an optimist versus 54% who say that about McCain. How many times has the more pessimistic candidate won a presidential election?

      http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 07:13:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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