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  •  Well, I've Yet To See Sources (0+ / 0-)

    that make that claim.  Can you steer me to something that supports your contention:

    pushing the numbers down below herd immunity levels

    ?

    Thanks.

    They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

    by Limelite on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 02:08:02 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  The British experience I blockquoted and linked (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adam B, Fabian, NogodsnomastersMary

      British health officials said last month that measles had again become endemic in that country for the first time since the mid-1990s due to parents declining to get their children vaccinated.

      But here's another case:

      Parents blamed for measles outbreak

      ....Cumbria and Lancashire Health Protection Unit (HPU) said only 30% of people had vaccinated their children against measles in the area of the town where the latest outbreak has emerged....

      •  No One Is Arguing (0+ / 0-)

        that a 30% immunization rate is not going to be effective in preventing disease outbreak.

        My point is that 100% compliance is not necessary to prevent outbreak of disease in the gen pop.  Something quite a bit (10%-15%) less is probably effective, but I don't have figures to support my contention at hand.

        What percentage of immunized population is the cut off for population protection -- anyone?

        They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

        by Limelite on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 02:28:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Here's more data (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KenBee, bythesea, NogodsnomastersMary

      Nonmedical Exemptions to School Immunization Requirements

      Results  From 2001 through 2004, states that permitted personal belief exemptions had higher nonmedical exemption rates than states that offered only religious exemptions, and states that easily granted exemptions had higher nonmedical exemption rates in 2002 through 2003 compared with states with medium and difficult exemption processes. The mean exemption rate increased an average of 6% per year, from 0.99% in 1991 to 2.54% in 2004, among states that offered personal belief exemptions. In states that easily granted exemptions, the rate increased 5% per year, from 1.26% in 1991 to 2.51% in 2004. No statistically significant change was seen in states that offered only religious exemptions or that had medium and difficult exemption processes. In multivariate analyses adjusting for demographics, easier granting of exemptions (incidence rate ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.14) and availability of personal belief exemptions (incidence rate ratio = 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-2.13) were associated with increased pertussis incidence.

      Conclusions  Permitting personal belief exemptions and easily granting exemptions are associated with higher and increasing nonmedical US exemption rates. State policies granting personal belief exemptions and states that easily grant exemptions are associated with increased pertussis incidence. States should examine their exemption policies to ensure control of pertussis and other vaccine-preventable diseases.

      •  Thanks for Both References n/t (0+ / 0-)

        They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

        by Limelite on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 02:23:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There's more, I'm still collecting them... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Fabian, KenBee, NogodsnomastersMary

          There are local incidences in schools, like this case in San Diego: Fourth case of measles reported at Linda Vista school  I think it got larger than that, but I know that the San Diego outbreak was a large collection of the unvaccinated.  There are communities of places were the anti-vaxers have taken more victims and in those schools the risk is higher.

          There's another on in Colorado I'm trying to find.

          •  Interesting but Not an Indication (0+ / 0-)

            that immunized students got measles, just a confirmation of my original post.

            None of the children, including the one most recently reported with the disease, has been vaccinated.

            They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

            by Limelite on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 02:35:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              NogodsnomastersMary

              You asked about herd immunity.  This is the response to that.  

              Incomplete seroconversion is merely a fact of all vaccinations--some people do not develop immunity.  But I can find that data too.  Hang on.

              •  My Original Post Was about Darwin (0+ / 0-)

                consequences for the un-immunized that both news stories you cite support.

                My original response to you was that 100% immunization was not necessary for effective control of disease outbreak.

                A subsequent post of mine indicated an interest in determining what minimum percentage is effective.  Obviously, 30% doesn't cut it in protecting the unimmunized or ineffectively (quasi) immunized.  The immunized 30% (we assume that number) did, however, sustain no damage from the rest of the "herd."

                Both news articles support all the points I've made -- which is not to say they necessarily detract from any of the points you have made.

                They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

                by Limelite on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 02:46:56 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I had German measles as a child (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                mem from somerville

                but for some reason did not develop the antibody to prevent recurrences -- it got discovered when my Women's Studies class in high school sponsored a day where girls could come in and get tested to see if they needed the vaccine. (Especially important for girls because having German measles during pregnancy can lead to birth defects.) Possibly my case was mild enough to not develop the antibody.

                "Old soldiers never die -- they get young soldiers killed." -- Bill Maher

                by Cali Scribe on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 03:50:34 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Here's another (3+ / 0-)

          Whooping cough outbreak closes El Sobrante school

          ....Contra Costa Health Services temporarily shut down the private East Bay Waldorf School on Friday in an effort to control the outbreak, which health officials say spread quickly because fewer than half the students at the school are immunized.....

          It almost doesn't matter if the US reaches herd immunity on average if you live in a cluster of the unvaccinated locally.  

          •  Again -- Fewer Than Half Immunized (0+ / 0-)

            a dangerous figure -- no argument there.

            And again:

            Parents whose children attend Waldorf schools are more inclined to believe in natural and alternative approaches to health, said John Fuller, an AWSNA employee based in Minneapolis, explaining why some may opt out of vaccinations.

            "I think that families that are drawn to Waldorf education have a lifestyle that allows them to be open to alternative health solutions," Fuller said, adding that AWSNA does not have a policy on immunizations and does not govern individual schools.
            (snip)
            Ferry said his daughter had received two of the three shots needed to protect against pertussis and was due for the third when she fell ill.

            They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

            by Limelite on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 02:39:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              NogodsnomastersMary

              they are dragging down the herd--even those part way through their shots, who are trying to do the right thing.  

              Keep in mind that the school kids will also bring disease home to their siblings who may not have been old enough for the vaccinations yet too--expanding the problem.

              Is the basic issue here that you don't understand seroprotection and that process?

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