Skip to main content

View Diary: The Obama Bounce Continues +12 and + 41, Updated (184 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  PEW study (8+ / 0-)

    Hispanic registered voters support Democrat Barack Obama for president over Republican John McCain by 66% to 23%, according to a nationwide survey of 2,015 Latinos conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center, from June 9 through July 13, 2008.

    The presumptive Democratic nominee's strong showing in this survey represents a sharp reversal in his fortunes from the primaries, when Obama lost the Latino vote to Hillary Rodham Clinton by a nearly two-to-one ratio, giving rise to speculation in some quarters that Hispanics were disinclined to vote for a black candidate.

    But in this new survey, three times as many respondents said being black would help Obama (32%) with Latino voters than said it would hurt him (11%); the majority (53%) said his race would make no difference to Latino voters.

    Obama is rated favorably by 76% of Latino registered voters, making him much more popular among that voting group than McCain (44% favorable) and President Bush (27% favorable). Hillary Clinton's ratings among Latino registered voters are 73% favorable and 24% unfavorable; Obama's are 76% favorable and 17% unfavorable.

    Also, more than three-quarters of Latinos who reported that they voted for Clinton in the primaries now say they are inclined to vote for Obama in the fall election, while just 8% say they are inclined to vote for McCain. That means that Obama is doing better among Hispanics who supported Clinton than he is among non-Hispanic white Clinton supporters, 70% of whom now say they have transferred their allegiance to Obama while 18% say they plan to vote for McCain, according to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

    Latino registered voters rank education, the cost of living, jobs and health care as the most important issues in the fall campaign, with crime lagging a bit behind those four and the war in Iraq and immigration still farther behind. On each of these seven issues, Obama is strongly favored over McCain--by lopsided ratios ranging from about three-to-one on education, jobs, health care, the cost of living and immigration, to about two-to-one on Iraq and crime.

    In addition to their strong support for Obama, Latino voters have moved sharply into the Democratic camp in the past two years, reversing a pro-GOP tide that had been evident among Latinos earlier in the decade. Some 65% of Latino registered voters now say they identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with just 26% who identify with or lean toward the GOP. This 39 percentage point Democratic Party identification edge is larger than it has been at any time this decade; as recently as 2006, the partisan gap was just 21 percentage points.

    Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

    by Denise Oliver Velez on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 04:54:36 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  McCain = = Tancredo surrogate ??? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      revgerry, Matt Z, MooseHB, Deoliver47

      The McCain effort at immigration reform got nowhere.

      Since then, McCain has talked BORDER SECURITY.

      Effin' suicide for the GOP.

      McCain = = Tancredo = = Pat Buchanan. Presidential zeros.

      Dixie Chicks, Amy Winehouse, Imus, and Rev. Wright. Overcome our evil with good.

      by vets74 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 05:46:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Stunning numbers (7+ / 0-)

      in that Pew poll in particular among Cuban-Americans, who favor Obama 53 to 28.  This would be a historic shift with potentially very, very significant implications.  Exit polls showed Bush winning 70% of the FL Cuban-American vote in 2004, and even more in 2000.  But some have suggested that younger (and second generation) Cuban-Americans have different political proclivities than their elders.

      If Pew's numbers are correct, Obama stands a much better shot in Florida than he has been given credit for.  (Not to mention that the Mexican-American and other Latino communities are growing here as well.)  I don't think that it is at all an accident that it is one of the states where the campaign has decided to begin airing its Spanish language radio ads.

      -- Stu

      •  I'm speechless, and that is hard to get (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MooseHB, Deoliver47

        Cuban-Americans, who favor Obama 53 to 28.


        "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

        by IamTheJudge on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 07:30:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  If those numbers are accurate that FL will go (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        VA Gal, MooseHB, Deoliver47

        blue.  The way I look at the numbers, it appears that Obama will do as well or slightly better among white voters than Kerry nationwide.  Obama will outperform Kerry among African Americans, Latinos and Asians. That suggests an Obama victory in FL.  If the GOP cannot hit its margins among Cuban voters in FL, they can't win.    

        Alternative rock with something to say:

        by khyber900 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 08:00:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Plus What Does This Say About TX, AZ, CO, NV (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MooseHB, Deoliver47
          If Obama is only getting 53% of the Cuban vote, imagine how this skews the percentage he is getting of the Mexican vote which predominates amongst the Latino communities in those states.

          "There's no housing bubble..." - Fed Chief Ben Bernanke, 10/27/2005

          by chuco35 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 08:58:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Texas may be closer to blue (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Odysseus, Deoliver47

            than many realize. Surprisingly, it didn't go strong red until Reagan. The Democratic Party here seemed all but dead until recently, but has been revitalized in the last several years. We only need to gain five seats this year to control the Texas House. Partly because of the Hispanic population, Texas is now forecast to be reliably blue by 2020 (!), but I'm hoping we get there a little faster. :)

      •  Coattails, baby, coattails (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        VA Gal, MooseHB, Deoliver47

        Maybe this will be the year that the Diaz Balart brothers and Ros-Lehtinen are given a good challenge for their seats.

      •  More Pew (0+ / 0-)


        The Puerto Rican numbers will have meaning in NYC, Philly, New Jersey, CT, and FL.

        The Non Catholic numbers more than likely represent evangelicals - which is much better than I had figured.  

        Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

        by Denise Oliver Velez on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 03:01:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site