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View Diary: The Obama Bounce Continues +12 and + 41, Updated (184 comments)

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  •  Stunning numbers (7+ / 0-)

    in that Pew poll in particular among Cuban-Americans, who favor Obama 53 to 28.  This would be a historic shift with potentially very, very significant implications.  Exit polls showed Bush winning 70% of the FL Cuban-American vote in 2004, and even more in 2000.  But some have suggested that younger (and second generation) Cuban-Americans have different political proclivities than their elders.

    If Pew's numbers are correct, Obama stands a much better shot in Florida than he has been given credit for.  (Not to mention that the Mexican-American and other Latino communities are growing here as well.)  I don't think that it is at all an accident that it is one of the states where the campaign has decided to begin airing its Spanish language radio ads.

    -- Stu

    •  I'm speechless, and that is hard to get (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MooseHB, Deoliver47

      Cuban-Americans, who favor Obama 53 to 28.


      "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

      by IamTheJudge on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 07:30:59 AM PDT

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    •  If those numbers are accurate that FL will go (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      VA Gal, MooseHB, Deoliver47

      blue.  The way I look at the numbers, it appears that Obama will do as well or slightly better among white voters than Kerry nationwide.  Obama will outperform Kerry among African Americans, Latinos and Asians. That suggests an Obama victory in FL.  If the GOP cannot hit its margins among Cuban voters in FL, they can't win.    

      Alternative rock with something to say:

      by khyber900 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 08:00:02 AM PDT

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      •  Plus What Does This Say About TX, AZ, CO, NV (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MooseHB, Deoliver47
        If Obama is only getting 53% of the Cuban vote, imagine how this skews the percentage he is getting of the Mexican vote which predominates amongst the Latino communities in those states.

        "There's no housing bubble..." - Fed Chief Ben Bernanke, 10/27/2005

        by chuco35 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 08:58:22 AM PDT

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        •  Texas may be closer to blue (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus, Deoliver47

          than many realize. Surprisingly, it didn't go strong red until Reagan. The Democratic Party here seemed all but dead until recently, but has been revitalized in the last several years. We only need to gain five seats this year to control the Texas House. Partly because of the Hispanic population, Texas is now forecast to be reliably blue by 2020 (!), but I'm hoping we get there a little faster. :)

    •  Coattails, baby, coattails (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      VA Gal, MooseHB, Deoliver47

      Maybe this will be the year that the Diaz Balart brothers and Ros-Lehtinen are given a good challenge for their seats.

    •  More Pew (0+ / 0-)


      The Puerto Rican numbers will have meaning in NYC, Philly, New Jersey, CT, and FL.

      The Non Catholic numbers more than likely represent evangelicals - which is much better than I had figured.  

      Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

      by Denise Oliver Velez on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 03:01:55 PM PDT

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