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View Diary: Gotcha! Gallup Commits "Polling Malpractice" Startling New Info/Controversy on Poll (348 comments)

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  •  Alan Abramowitz on the math (10+ / 0-)

    How do you get from a 47-44 Obama lead among RVs to a 49-45 McCain lead among LVs?

    A few quick calculations shows how. You have 900 RVs and 791 LVs, so that means that among your 109 UVs (that's unlikely voters according to Gallup) Obama leads McCain by a whopping 61% to 7%.

    Putting it another way, according to Gallup 16% of registered Obama supporters are unlikely to vote compared with only 2% of registered McCain supporters.

    http://www.pollster.com/...

    ...which equals "makes no sense whatsoever".

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 10:09:53 AM PDT

    •  This could be attributed to historically low (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Pris from LA

      turnout by younger voters (Obama supporters) and historically high turnout for older voters (McCain supporters).

      Until we see a change in that trend, we should be very concerned.

      For this and many other reasons stated above, we need to make sure turnout is HUGE so that there is NO DOUBT.

      •  Pollster Error is the most likely cause (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rlharry, bablhous, Pris from LA

        ..and not much else.

        One of the dirty little secrets of polling is that Gallup, despite it's long history and it's "gold standard" status is in reality a pretty deplorable pollster. If you look what 538 terms "pollster induced error" (the degree to which their polling skew from the actual results), Gallup is down near the bottom, with dregs like Fox News and Marist. Worse than ARG this year.

        http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/...

        Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

        by Scarce on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 10:39:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  error or manipulation? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Scarce, rlharry, bablhous

          In describing the poll's usefulness on MSNBC Tuesday morning, Gallup chief Frank Newport said "it's important to look at likely voters ... just to see under a scenario where McCain supporters are energized."

          This is a little disconcerting -- what scenario could one imagine that would energize McCain's voters?

          What's brewin'?

          •  That is the $1,000,000 question (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Mr Magu

            They knew how this would look, registered voters one way, "likely voters" off in totally different direction. Yet they released this anyway, seemingly without regard to the embarrassment.

            Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

            by Scarce on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 10:51:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Not trying to defend Gallup... (0+ / 0-)

          Just thinking out loud.

          In the process of creating the q'airre for a poll and actually taking a poll, there are many hands that touch it and approve this word or that question.

          Could it be that Gallup was commissioned to do the poll with a question or series of questions addressing the idea "What if something major happened that energizes McCain's voters, how would it affect the outcome?"

          Before publishing the poll, there are often additional hands/eyes that are added into the approval process.  Many in this group are higher-ups that often have a certain agenda to push.

          Is it possible that these answers they got were just too juicy to not publish and that the "energizing event" is an idea that is being considered as a potential October Surprise?

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