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View Diary: Gotcha! Gallup Commits "Polling Malpractice" Startling New Info/Controversy on Poll (348 comments)

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  •  Fortunately... (9+ / 0-)

    There's enough polling outfits and enough effort put into aggregating all the polls that, in the end, we come out with a fair sense of the race even if a couple would prefer it was seen as tighter.  

    If you want a roller coaster ride, just think about the latest poll from some random pollster.  If you want an actual sense of what's happening in public opinion, go look at pollster.com.  That's currently giving Obama a 284 to 147 lead with with 107 EV's in the toss up status.  That's based on their aggregate of all the polling data.

    McCain up by 4 makes ZERO sense in that context.  If you go look at pollster.com's aggregate of the national poll you can see where that poll is.  If you look, there's a lonely red dot in amongst all those blue dots.  That's the gallup poll.  It is an obvious outlier.  You can also see the trend line from Obama creeping up and the one for McCain continuing to drift down.  

    If the aggregates begin to shift, then we know something's up.  But otherwise, polls like this are merely noise blocking the signal.  Ignore them.

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