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View Diary: 1980 Redux (193 comments)

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  •  My point is the map is little different from 2004 (0+ / 0-)

    and 2000 combined --winning the states that went for either Gore or Kerry, with Ohio and Florida deciding.

    Obama is a sea change in many ways but there's no 1980 landslide in the picture and we shouldn't expect it -- this is going to be very hard-fought.

    •  But the whole point is at this time (0+ / 0-)

      in 1980, no one saw a landslide either. Carter was even ahead in some polls and the race was tight. Think of it this way, we're seeing all over the country a bunch of red states where Obama isn't leading but is overperforming significantly and within 5% pts. With a strong debate performance deep red states like North carolina, Indiana, and Montana are a serious threat to turn blue. In fact, they're already a serious threat.

      So, as of now the race isn't a landslide, but there are TONS of indicators that show landslide potential for Obama.

      •  I share the hope but (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        quaderni, quotemstr

        there are lots of election cycles where the early polls show a tight race and it turns out to be......drumroll please.....a tight race.

        Take 1976, which might be the better analogy. The country was realing from Watergate and all the Nixon scandals. It should have been easy as pie to paint Gerald Ford as more Nixon, after all, Ford had pardoned the guy. Should have been a Democratic landslide.

        But voters chose to give Ford the benefit of doubt, and Ford would have won if Ohio had tipped the other way.

        Work like it's going to be a squeaker, and as if Ohio, Michigan and Florida are going to decide it yet again. Because that's the way to ensure a win.

        •  I definetley agree (0+ / 0-)

          with working like its a squeaker, because while i believe the potential for a landslide exists, so exists the possibility of another nailbiter where turnout will determine things.

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