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View Diary: A flaw in fivethirtyeight (and a meta-analytic repair) (24 comments)

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  •  Everyone should recommend this post (4+ / 0-)

    I don't understand this site. People recommend badly written junk, but a superb, and superbly written, analysis like this is basically ignored.

    •  thank you (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Pinko Elephant, Deoliver47

      The site has extremely high traffic in diarists. So readers react quickly, and sometimes reflexively. I think it's a great forum for getting ideas out, but I see your point.

      I suspect a better approach will be to get the work in front of people with more time to think, such as bloggers and journalists. The WSJ piece in 2004 provided excellent coverage of this project. In fact, the reporter later received a Pulitzer Prize for his own statistical analysis of corporate malfeasance!

      Anyway, I appreciate your kind words.

      •  I suspect . . . (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Deoliver47

        that part of the problem is that so many people have minimal comprehension of statistics and find the material too difficult to understand and therefore ignore it.

      •  Wanna expand? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Deoliver47

        If you want to try your hand at predicting the outcome of the races for the Senate and House, you'd be welcome to post at SwingStateProject.com.

        Right now FiveThirtyEight has a slightly less than 100% chance of the Democrats controlling 51 Senate seats and less than a 15% chance of taking the filibuster-resistant 60 seats we need. I think he's low, but my conclusions are pure "seat of the pants", to use a polite term for their origin. And Poblano has not yet hazarded a forecast for the House, where polling data is even more scarce than for the 16 or 17 potentially competitive Senate races.

    •  Highly technical posts like this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Deoliver47

      have a limited audience here.

      I did start a Yahoo group called stats_geeks_of_daily_kos and all are free to join, but it has seen very little activity

      •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515

        though I'm a qualitative analyst by training - rubbing shoulders for a few years with folks trained in statistical quantitative analysis (like plf515 - hi again Peter)  helped me develop the patience to read through diaries like this one.  

        Tipped and rec'ed and keep them coming.  They may not always make the rec list - but are extremely informative and absorbing for some of us.

        Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

        by Denise Oliver Velez on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 11:07:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Right you are. (0+ / 0-)

      We think of ourselves as high-information voters here, but in fact the majority of posts (and posters) follow only tv ads, daily tracking polls, and media pundits.

      Meanwhile, the Obama lead keeps solidifying while the posters are panicing.

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