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View Diary: Lets not say anything bad about this SUSA poll: (55 comments)

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  •  Bad or No Weighting (none)
    If Kerry is winning 91% of Dems and 52% of independents he should win Ohio easily, not just by one point.  Gore lost Ohio by 4% as he lost independents (54%Bush-38%Gore) and won Dems 88-9% and lost rethugs (89%-9%).  The turnout in Ohio for 2000 was 38% Dens, 37% Rep, and 26% Independent.  With the 2000 turnout model SUSA should have Kerry up by more than 1%.  They must be using a somewhat pro-GOP sample.  
    •  What? (none)
      I don't see any breakdown by party.  Did I miss it?

      SUSA doesn't weight its polls at all.  There was a story about it a couple of weeks ago on the main page.

      Rules are good. Break them.

      by KariQ on Tue Oct 05, 2004 at 03:45:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Party ID no good for weighting (none)
      People will not correctly report their party ID (depending on question). It's not a good way to weight polls. Better to go for a purely random sample (difficult) or weight by demographic.
    •  Not necessarily (none)
      Using the 2000 weighting, and Kerry winning 91% of Dems and 52% of independents gives 48.1%

      So that means if that Kerry is getting no more than 3% of Rethugs, then this poll would be accurate.

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