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View Diary: Bad tidings in Gallup Daily poll (96 comments)

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  •  Look at the numbers (2+ / 0-)
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    wildcat6, USexpat Ukraine

    Yesterday's result was a tie. Today's result could be anything, when you consider that a 10-point error in either direction is a distinct possibility.

    •  neil is a concern Troll (1+ / 0-)
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      •  No he's not (1+ / 0-)
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        USexpat Ukraine

        If you read billmon's diary from last night, this is basically an extension of the numeric analysis billmon did, extending the daily Gallup tracking by one more day.

        A foolish consistency (staying the course in Iraq) is the hobgoblin of George W. Bush.

        by wildcat6 on Fri Aug 29, 2008 at 11:30:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Okay (0+ / 0-)

          But that analysis is bullshit, and we should consider anything built upon it as bullshit.

          •  What's bullshit? (2+ / 0-)
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            wildcat6, USexpat Ukraine

            Do you think Obama's lead as shown by the tracking poll won't shrink over the next three days? Or do you think the talking heads won't try to impose a storyline on that, which is basically statistical noise? Or do you think we shouldn't be aware in advance that Obama's lead in the tracking poll will shrink due to nothing but sampling error?

            Help me out.

            •  The daily raw numbers (0+ / 0-)

              that The Left Coaster is using for their projections are based on one unwarranted assumption and lots of extrapolation, and so this one-day tie that we're all fretting over is essentially just a made-up number.

              If you show me the actual gallup daily numbers and say that there's a tie, that's something else.

              •  the point isn't that the race is tied (2+ / 0-)

                The point is that the Gallup tracker is wandering all over the place, and thus is producing big swingsw -- first in Obama's favor and now, maybe, in McCain's.

                I thought the swing towards Obama in the three-day average on Wednesday and last night was so large it had to be saying something real. But now I think neil is probably right: it's mostly just random noise.

      •  Do you know what a concern troll is? (1+ / 0-)
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        A concern troll is someone who's concerned that the candidate must do what the concern troll says or else he's DOOMED, DOOMED.

        I'm saying, this is coming down the pike, the media is going to hit Obama in exactly this way on Monday, and you should be ready for it. I don't know what he could do about it; that's his job and I'm sure his people are aware of it.

        What we can do is not pay attention to the stupid tracking poll. This is simply an illustration of how it misleads you.

        •  Oh! The Irony! (0+ / 0-)

          What we can do is not pay attention to the stupid tracking poll.

          This is CLASS WAR, and the other side is winning.

          by Mr X on Fri Aug 29, 2008 at 11:49:38 AM PDT

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          •  Diary is supposed to be about press coverage (2+ / 0-)
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            wildcat6, USexpat Ukraine

            of the tracking poll. The detailed analysis of the tracking poll was primarily to show why the tracking poll does not depict trends accurately.

            I wish everybody would stop writing about the stupid tracking poll; this diary is a response to the dozen diaries yesterday that were gleefully touting Obama's surge in the tracker.

    •  Actually neil different number combinations (0+ / 0-)

      could have produced the past three days results.  Yours is not the definitive daily number from yesterday.

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