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View Diary: Great Big Bounce (276 comments)

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  •  Yesterday: 16 point margin (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kainah, Disillusioned, bara, smari006

    It's not hard to get Excel to break out the day-by-day results.

    August 20: O 45 M 43
    August 21: O 45 M 44
    August 22: O 45 M 45
    August 23: O 45 M 46
    August 24: O 45 M 44
    August 25: O 42 M 48
    August 26: O 48 M 40 (post-Michelle)
    August 27: O 54 M 38 (post-Hillary)

    It will probably be a double digit lead tomorrow, even though it won't be until Saturday that we start seeing the impact of Obama's speech tonight.

    You have the power to change America. Yes. We. Can.

    by CA Pol Junkie on Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 05:23:57 PM PDT

    •  Not Hard? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bara, smari006

      Okay... just a mini and unwarranted rant.

      First - since you don't have a single data point to start from in Gallup - you're assuming (the post you link to says as much) that at some point in an xyz sample that x=a.  Then you're basing other days on the prior assumption that x=a.

      Second - the other problem here is they are mostly polling people who are RVs and who are at home.  The problem here is there are a lot of RVs who aren't at home and these are the people that won't be watching the Convention (since they aren't at home), and they won't have the same "Convention bounce" as those polled since they are away from home not watching it (they'll have this same problem next week - going the other way).

      That said, I'm sure it's still relatively close to the numbers you have and is nice to see!

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