#### Comment Preferences

• ##### Yesterday: 16 point margin(4+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
kainah, Disillusioned, bara, smari006

It's not hard to get Excel to break out the day-by-day results.

August 20: O 45 M 43
August 21: O 45 M 44
August 22: O 45 M 45
August 23: O 45 M 46
August 24: O 45 M 44
August 25: O 42 M 48
August 26: O 48 M 40 (post-Michelle)
August 27: O 54 M 38 (post-Hillary)

It will probably be a double digit lead tomorrow, even though it won't be until Saturday that we start seeing the impact of Obama's speech tonight.

You have the power to change America. Yes. We. Can.

• ##### Not Hard?(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
bara, smari006

Okay... just a mini and unwarranted rant.

First - since you don't have a single data point to start from in Gallup - you're assuming (the post you link to says as much) that at some point in an xyz sample that x=a.  Then you're basing other days on the prior assumption that x=a.

Second - the other problem here is they are mostly polling people who are RVs and who are at home.  The problem here is there are a lot of RVs who aren't at home and these are the people that won't be watching the Convention (since they aren't at home), and they won't have the same "Convention bounce" as those polled since they are away from home not watching it (they'll have this same problem next week - going the other way).

That said, I'm sure it's still relatively close to the numbers you have and is nice to see!

• ##### eh, if you guess right you get real close and(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
sagesource, bara, omgitsparishilton

you can use each guess to get closer to the real number with each number.

Bayesian deconvolution, baby. It's the only way to fly.

Hand me down my walking cane, hand me down my hat...

[ Parent ]

• ##### Sure(6+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
sagesource, Forbes, bara, dsteffen, Umeeksk, Losty

But once the words ''bayesian deconvolution" comes into a conversation, the words ''not hard" should leave it. ;)

• ##### The Gallup Tracking Poll...(0+ / 0-)

...is crack for political junkies, but you're right that we shouldn't take it too seriously.  It is showing a big bounce, though, so there is good news in there.

You have the power to change America. Yes. We. Can.

[ Parent ]

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