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View Diary: Great Big Bounce (276 comments)

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  •  NC hasn't had a poll yet that really represents (11+ / 0-)

    an accurate "likely voter" model, or good demographics.  the influx of population - esp. dems - in the last 5 years throws demographic expectations for likelies whose behaviors can't really be predicted based on voting they didn't do here in 2004/2006 cycles.  moreover, none of the polls have had an accurate sample that reflects all of Barack's support bases - young voters, african-americans, and urban voters.  i've read these polls very, very carefully, and every single one has undersampled at least one of these groups.  particularly notable has been the underrepresentation of Barack's regional bases of support.  i wouldn't trust any poll that takes less than 22% of its sample from the Research Triangle region (in  point of fact, the region should yield 25% of the states votes, or slightly more).  Since this is Obama country, it matters if a pollster is taking, say, a third to half of its sample from Charlotte and Western NC (McCain strongholds) while shorting the Triangle.

    •  I got a sense of NC (6+ / 0-)

      while my son was in college there. Nothing I can say scientifically, but just a feeling I got that many of these folks can meld their religious predilections (and they were strikingly different than here in CT) with progressive ideals. Something else I picked up - Edwards was not as beloved in his home state as I would have assumed, and so the election results were not surprising to me.

    •  Writing from that same Research Triangle (6+ / 0-)

      Obama signs by the hundreds; virtually impossible to see the name McCain anywhere in public other than gated communities. The organization here is phenomenal, as it was already when Obama crushed Hillary in the primary. There is no way for the pollsters to measure what's happening here. McCain will need to be leading by 8 points as election day approaches to have a chance of winning. Remember, we almost elected Harvey Gantt in his run against Jesse Helms, and THAT was in 1996. The state has been turning incrementally Blue ever since.

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