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View Diary: Two Focus Groups (On Barack's Acceptance Speech and Sarah Palin) Updated (279 comments)

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  •  I have seen a total lack of analysis (1+ / 0-)
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    jenontheshore

    from the talking heads on cable and the weekend shows.  I mean these polls and initial response get the daylights reported out of them if they favor McCain, but not a peep for Obama.  After looking at this I should have heard from several people that:

    1. This excites McCain's base, but his base has been trending back towards him all summer, and a tepid vote is still a vote.  So this might push the rest of the conservatives and maybe a few Indy-Republicans pack to his column.  A net gain of maybe 2-5%.
    1. This is no way helps him with Democratic voters, specifically the Hillary voters.  In one single masterstroke he undermined the whole premise of her and his campaign.  I've noticed one common theme among most Hillary holdouts, inexperience, and this actually makes the Obama-Biden ticket the safer choice for them.  That doesn't even begin to bring up the issue of condescension to that constituency of voters NOR her (Palin) far far right beliefs.  A net loss for McCain of at least 5%.
    1. Finally if this is a race between the bases, Obama wins, flat out wins.  There are more registered Democrats and they are more excited to vote.  McCain can only win id he consolidates the base and picks off a majority of Indy's.  Now the Independent vote has been reported to be larger and this might be because fewer Republicans want to admit that they are indeed Republicans.  As the data above shows both Obama's performance and Palin's nomination had a net effect of a tremendous boon for Obama.  Again for many Independents the issue was experience and the analysis above applies.  A net gain for Obama of around 3-5%.

    Those percentages are just my guess and they are conservative but they are at least a 3% shift and at most about a 10% shift.  In the coming days I hope Obama IGNORES the experience issue and let the press and others carry that message and just hammers home change, change, change.  The goal should be that when people enter into the voting booth they think Obama-Biden change AND experience.

    We all went to heaven in a little rowboat, and there was nothing to fear and nothing to doubt. --Radiohead

    by Tzimisce on Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 11:13:04 AM PDT

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