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View Diary: Key Senate races --- update (with predictions) (59 comments)

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  •  Well, I don't usually (4+ / 0-)

    I don't usually do it bottom up, counting the races we might win and saying, Voila when I get to a dozen. I look at the mood of the country, the right path/wrong path and generic Democrat polling, etc to conclude, this is a change year, wave year, realigning election. Those are rare, but they usually mean lots of seats change sides. So, in 1932 and 1958 and 1980 there were big changes, about a dozen seats changed sides.

    It isn't too hard to see how that could happen this year. For a few months it's been obvious that we will win the 3 Open Seats: Virginia (1), New Mexico (2), Colorado (3). Alaska (4) could be open by November if the trial goes badly for the incumbent! We have a great shot at a quasi-open seat in Mississippi (5). That seat in MS is Open enough that the race is legally a Special Election, so the candidates will be listed without party ID and in alphabetical order -- and that's good for 3 to 5 points for our guy right there.

    Defeating incumbents is harder. But New Hampshire (6) went heavily Democratic in '06 and nothing suggests that the trend has reversed. Oregon (7) and Minnesota (8) are blue states that have red Senators who are gonna be in deep trouble on election day. Those states have been on the hot lists for months.

    Fairly recently things have started to look better for us in North Carolina (9) and now Georgia (10).

    The fun thing is that in a wave year election you pull off some close ones and get some victories that were unexpected when the year began. So will we be able to daschle Mitch McConnell in Kentucky 10 -- you never know. Larry LaRocco has been having a run of luck, announcing against a popular well-entrenched incumbent who later decided to resign, or not resign, then not to run for reelection, for reasons related to the fact that he is not gay. So Idaho (11) is actually another Open seat. Well, if lightning can strike Idaho, it could also strike in Oklahoma (12) or Kansas (12) or even Nebraska (12) or Tennessee (12).

    And don't count out Rick Noriega (13) just yet. Everyone worries that he doesn't have enough money. Hell, last time we had candidates with lots of money they all got their behinds kicked, back in '02. Noriega's Hispanic base is solid, it just needs turnout. That does not take paid media if the free media carries some excitement. This time it's been reported that Hillary plans to campaign for Noriega in several Texas cities and along the border. The black bloc vote should turn out well too, even if today they don't even know Noriega's name. And if the Obama ground game in November is as good as it was in March, the turnout of Anglo Democrats will be massive.

    So I'm pretty optimistic we can get that dozen. I already gave you 16 potential wins.

    Yeah, I'm sure we will lose Alabama, due to the humongous ego of Ms Vivien Figures, who failed to yield right of way to a candidate who had a chance there. I'm not optimistic about Carter in Wyoming or Conley in South Carolina, even though FiveThirtyEight gives them each a 1 or 2% chance of winning at this point. But hey, that site gives Tom Allen of Maine (14) a 6% of winning, so you just never know.

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