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View Diary: USA Today/Gallup: Another screwey likely voter model (59 comments)

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  •  Replying to my own comment to clarify (0+ / 0-)

    --so I don't get flamed too horribly.

    The original post seems to be implying that both McCain and Obama should lose roughly equal amounts of voters in the likely voter model, but as I pointed out in my reply, that's not the case.  Obama should lose more votes for the factors I mentioned.

    I think that we all are aware that turn out among African Americans will reach historic levels, and Gallup is not accounting (and probably can't, since we've never seen it before, and their definition of a "likely voter" is based in large part on "people who have voted before") for this increase in likely voters, which probably moves some more registered voters into the likely voter column for Obama.

    Anyway, the analysis cheered me a bit, I've been depressed about this poll, so props to FleetAdmiralJ for posting.

    Turns out that talking about abstinence is a lot easier than practicing it.

    by kayebee on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 05:55:56 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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