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View Diary: Intrade, the election, and painting the tape - Updated (11 comments)

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  •  Could be (2+ / 0-)
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    Neon Vincent, thefretgenie

    I did omit that in my list of possible new info.  You know anyplace that has a good history of nationwide polling?  Kind of like electoral-vote.org, which only keeps a list of per-state polling.

    Still, there's my argument about the pattern of rapid selling.  If you want to get the best price for your shares, you sell gradually.  If you want to drive the price down, you sell fast.  I guess an alternate to my theory would be a series of panicked individual unskilled investors, worried about the polls.

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