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View Diary: Intrade, the election, and painting the tape - Updated (11 comments)

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  •  I have followed Intrade (1+ / 0-)
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    Neon Vincent

    for a while, I can say that there are 2 things to consider:

    1. The volume is way to low to make this a good indicator
    1. As others have said, it tend to react AFTER things happen, not before (which the stock-market often does).  Today we could see that McCains "stocks" went up after the USAtoday/Gallup was released but that it went down again after Rasmussen/CNN/Hotline had the race tied.  

    The market is often right, but Intrade as way to low volume to be "right".  As others have said, it could easily be manipulated when the volume is so low. Intrade actual have Hillary Clinton (as president) traded at 3, which is laughable...

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