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View Diary: Obama Supporters: To borrow a phrase from George Bush, "Stay the Course" (14 comments)

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  •  Thank you for your analysis. (0+ / 0-)

    I pretty much ignore the polls anyway.  If they were so accurate, we'd be watching Hillary versus Rudy, right now.

    But it does seem to me -- an observer who admittedly does not understanding the polling process and can hardly add two and two -- that the polls cannot possibly be accurate because of all of the first-time voters who are turning out this year.  Just look at the primaries -- if they turned out for the primaries, they're definitely showing up in November.

    Add to that the youth vote, which, I know, I know, never really shows up in November.  Except that they've been showing up this year.  And a lot of them only own cell phones, so they don't get polled.

    Add to that the embarrassed Republicans, who may not admit to their friends, their family, or even the pollsters that they can't possibly bring themselves to vote for four more years of the same failed policies.  When they step into the privacy of the voting booth, they're going to vote for Obama.  They may lie about it outside the booth, but their lies don't matter; their votes do.

    Proud member of the uppity angry left.

    by Kaili Joy Gray on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:26:55 AM PDT

    •  I think many Republicans will just stay home (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Angry Mouse

      I know of several die-hard conservatives, who would never vote for a Democrat let alone a black man, who can't bring themselves to vote for McCain and have said they plan to stay home on election day.  I always solemnly encourage them to do this as a good way to take a stand.

      May all beings be free from fear.

      by shakti on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:39:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  first time voters (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Angry Mouse

      you are absolutely right about the first time voters.

      On one hand, the polling industry is very wary because every time they've attempted to weight for the youth vote according to predictions, they've been burned when the turnout wasn't as great as they expected.

      But on the other hand, there IS plenty of empirical, hard evidence to back up the fact that Obama has got millions of first time voters lined up and ready to go. It's sort of got the pollsters in a knot because they aren't quite sure what to do. Will these people ultimately show up or will it be less than we expect?

      Nobody really knows how this election is going to turnout, but remember, all these first time voters don't mean a whole lot in places like California, or the Northeast. What matters are the first time voters in the battleground states I mentioned.

      A very distinct possibility is that Obama cruises in the popular vote total, but loses the electoral college. I don't even want to think about what would happen then :)

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