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View Diary: NC-Sen, Pres, Gov: Our latest polling (148 comments)

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  •  Great numbers if that is coming from a GOP (2+ / 0-)
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    Iberian, scamperdo

    leaning outfit like Ras.  The only 3 Kerry states that are at risk are: Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Hampshire.  I say that only because Bush ran a close race 2 of the 3 in 2004, and in the case of MI, there was no primary so some of Obama's organizational advantages might not be as strong as compared with other states.

    But Kerry won MI by 165,000 votes and didn't do that well in the swing counties, so MI in my view is safe.  Kerry only carried WI by 11,000 votes, but Obama has polled strong there all year, and the border state advantage will yield a couple of extra points on election day.  NH will be close, but the last CNN poll had Obama up +5, and Palin won't play that well in Southern NH (though she'll do well north of Concord because of the gun culture association).

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 03:01:30 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  I agree w/ your assessment (1+ / 0-)
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      One thing Kerry did was have a huge rally in WI on their first day of early voting.  Springsteen played.  100K in the crowd.  And during the speech Kerry suggested that everyone head on over to the polling area and vote.  That right there might have won him the state.  Obama would be wise to do something similar.  

      NH I had been worried about given McCain's popularity there over various primaries, but I just don't see it happening.  Not in a year like this when the NE is so blue.  

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